WW3: A SECOND FRONT MAY OPEN

 

One of the many visions of what increasingly

looks like a Third World War, waged between China's allies

and America's allies. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia,

the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt are slated to become

BRICS members next year, like Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia, by the way,

while South Africa is already a member of that economic association.

The well-known US magazine Foreign Affairs just published a very interesting article on the Israeli war against Hamas and asked pointed questions about the initial attacks executed by Hamas combattants toward Israeli civilians, especially about the lack of prior warnings from the State of Israel intelligence community.

The first reason for the intelligence failure, I suspect, is that many intelligence (and army) officers had their attention fixed on internal threats (read: the far-right ultra-religious Israeli government itself), instead that on external threats.

Besides that, the way the Israelis, the Americans, and the Western world in general expect the war to end may be completely wrong. The war may spread to other theaters rather easily, like the West Bank, the Galilean area, and Jerusalem itself. The number of active participants may also increase. Jewish settlers in the West Bank, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, and Houtis in Yemen (allies of Iran) have already started using force, albeit on a small scale for the moment.

The fate of Gaza, especially the plight of Gazans, as their de facto government fight back against attacks by the Israeli Air Force, to be followed envetually by a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, at the very least of its northern part, will be an important factor in the eventual spreading of the war to other parts of Israel and to other parts of the Middle East. The geographical scope of that spreading may be large. As noted, missiles have already been fired against US Navy ships in the process of crossing the Red Sea, most probably from Yemen.

Israel may find itself fighting against a wide array of dedicated, well-armed enemies, amid a lot of indifferent Arab countries, whose populations and governements are rooting for the Palestinians and waiting to see which way the final wind will blow. In that context, two carriers, even assuming America may accept to enter actively such a conflict, won't be enough. Israel's geographical position, surrounded by potential enemies and located at the far eastern end of the long Mediterranean logistic corridor, is not favorable for a European military intervention if one ever became necessary in case of a developing catastrophic situation.

A cease-fire, on terms that favors the Palestinians, may then be the best Israel may obtain if things turn for the worst, as they may well do. A normalization between 1) most Arabic countries, 2) Arabic countries allied to Iran, and 3) the State of Israel may then occur, but not under US aegis, this time, since China may then be preferred as the mediating party, the same way she mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a few weeks ago.

Such a turn of events, of course, would signal the final exit of America from the Middle East...

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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/real-lessons-yom-kippur-war

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)