THE CHINESE CHALLENGE

 

(Here's a series of publications on X / Twitter, published in the last weeks.)

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(16 août 2024)

AUKUS appears likely to happen, for better or for worse...

An interesting point being made in this article is that Australia, with hindsight, would probably have been better off to stay the course with the initial contract with France, instead of finding itself stuck with such a fuzzy and expensive alternative.

Strangely enough, the whole AUKUS thing remind one of Brexit: an idea that sounded fine, at least at first...

https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-one-of-the-worst-defence-and-foreign-policy-decisions-our-country-has-made/

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(20 août 2024)

This interesting article in Foreign Affairs has only one flaw, but a big one.

It is based on the assumption that America is all-powerful, it can do whatever it choose, and money is no object. The argument may seem evident now, but it is not in reality, and it is likely to become increasingly baseless with time.

Just look at the current budgetary deficits, and the already enormous amount of the US national debt. Look too at the impressive rise of the part of the budget allocated to debt servicing, now higher than the Defense budget. Essentially, it is composed of the part of the revenues that have to be used to pay the interests on the debts incurred in the past years and decades, leaving the rest of the revenues paying for everything else in the budget.

What is positively striking is to see how much official political discourse is totally ignoring the subject, eventhough this is an electoral year. No one is talking about it, as if it doesn't matter at all.

The reason for such a stunning silence is not that the matter is not important. It is utterly important, of course. The reason is simply that no one has a solution to this problem, so it is better to bury its head in the sand, the way an ostrich does when facing a danger.

America doesn't know what to do. Its budgetary situation is unsustainable in the long term. It imply a diminishing capacity to 1) solve internal problems and 2) resist external challenges.

The situation is not catastrophic just yet, and the United States remains a powerful country for the time being, and will remain so for the near future. The longer prospects, though, are not good. Declining means are to be expected with the passage of time, and a full collapse is not impossible in case of a foreign crisis, such as an actual, hot, full-blown war against a powerful enemy.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/perils-isolationism-condoleezza-rice

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(25 août 2024)

An important article in the Australian blog Pearls & Irritations about the choices facing Australia and New Zealand. Will they choose a future dedicated to helping America reach its political and military objectives through the AUKUS alliance and the implantation of US bases in Australia? Or will they choose a future where they deepen their economic ties with their closest neighbors, that is to say Indonesia, India, and, especially, China?

So far, in Australia, the American option seems to be preferred by the two main parties, the Conservatives and the Liberals, while New Zealand is being courted intensively by the US, with some success. In the long run, though, the local populations may come to realize that the Asiatic option is more fruitful.

https://johnmenadue.com/exiting-pax-americana-could-save-our-bacon/

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(26 août 2024)

An interesting article in the Japanese business publication Asia Nikkei (below) that shows that the anti-China sentiment promoted and pushed by the United States in the Asia Pacific region is not shared by everybody. The Taiwanese opposition parties have different views. Let's remember that the Kuomintang, the formation that lost the Chinese Civil War of the XXth century, is historically in favor of the One China option. Also, many Taiwanese citizens considers (rightly) that Taiwanese society is still an integral part of Chinese society, the two having been separated for political reasons.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/Taiwan-s-8.9bn-plan-for-more-submarines-meets-political-resistance

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(26 août 2024)

If elected, Harris will likely have to respond to what would be expected of her, and she will certainly won't want to be depicted as 'soft' on China by the Republicans. All that may push Harris to choose a continuation of Biden's policy.

As for Trump, if he is elected to the presidency a second time, he will probably continue to actively support Israel, but not Ukraine, leaving Kiev to fend for itself. He may also be attracted by a return to isolationism and choose retrenchment behind the two large oceans that protect America, on the westward and on the eastward. Putting America First may well mean leaving allies high and dry if and when necessary...

https://johnmenadue.com/would-harris-adopt-the-militarism-of-the-failed-biden-doctrine/

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(28 août 2024)

Cet article du Figaro sous-entend que l'industrie automobile ralentit la cadence de la transition vers l'électrique. Il faut nuancer.

C'est vrai pour les marchés relativement secondaires que sont aujourd'hui devenus l'Amérique du Nord et l'Europe. Ce ne l'est pas sur le marché principal, celui de l'Asie orientale, tout particulièrement la Chine. C'est devenu le marché incontournable, de par sa taille gigantesque, son dynamisme propre et son grand esprit d'innovation.

Là, la transition se continue à vive allure, meme si elle doit composer avec l'evolution de l'économie chinoise, comme c'est présentement le cas. De là, cette transition va se poursuivre dans les pays non occidentaux, via l'exportation et la délocalisation de la production, comme en Thaïlande, la Turquie, le Brésil, etc.

Cela souligne quelque chose de surprenant et d'important. Les pays occidentaux, autrefois à la fine pointe du progrès scientifique et technologique, sont en train de se faire déclassés et de devenir les mauvais élèves de la classe.

Cela risque d'avoir des conséquences malencontreuses au plan écologique. Il n'est pas impossible qu'en 2030 ou en 2040, la plupart des pays aient réussi à faire des pas de géants en ce qui touche la transition verte et la lutte au déséquilibre climatique, en bonne partie grâce aux initiatives chinoises et malgré les réticences des pays occidentaux, préférant être à la traine pour des raisons de rivalité politique.

L'attitude actuelle de Trump est inquiétante à cet égard. Dans son esprit (et aux yeux d'une bonne partie de l'électorat américain), mieux vaut pomper le pétrole et le gaz au maximum et tourner le dos aux énergies renouvelables, trop identifiées à la Chine et, donc, aux "forces du mal".

https://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/les-constructeurs-automobiles-levent-le-pied-sur-l-electrique-20240827?

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(30 août 2024)

With its catastrophic budgetary situation, America needs Australia's financial support if it wish to avoid being pushed away by China. Will Australian taxpayers agreed to such a financial burden, over such a long period, for the sake of preserving the hegemonic power of another country?

https://johnmenadue.com/returning-to-australias-bedrock-for-security/

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(30 août 2024)

Il serait évidemment dangereux de sous-estimer la compagnie chinoise et son nouvel avion de ligne. Rappelons-nous que le Rafale français, au début, n'obtenait que des résultats décevant et insatisfaisants. Laisson le temps au temps...

https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/occitanie/haute-garonne/toulouse/le-concurrent-de-l-airbus-a320neo-connait-des-debuts-difficiles-l-avion-c919-n-interesse-que-la-chine-et-sa-production-limitee-3023849.html

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)