DE L'ÉTHIOPIE À L'INDONÉSIE, DU GUYANA À L'AFGHANISTAN

 

LES NOUVELLES - 2025

JUILLET

(15)

* * *

(Affichages faits sur Linked In, en date du dimanche 19 juillet 2025)

***

Ça, c'est exactement le genre d'articles qui peut faire réfléchir les Européens sur ce qui se passe réellement sur la planète et, à plus long terme, arriver à infléchir à la longue les réflexes atlantistes de leurs dirigeants. Au plan du développement économique (et celui de la transition écologique), l'Union européenne a davantage intérêt à se rapprocher de la Chine que de tenter de rester à tout prix la vassale d'une Amérique qui, ces temps-ci, a la tête ailleurs de toute façon. Diaboliser la Russie (et les graves menaces d'invasion qu'elle fait peser sur la Pologne, l'Allemagne, la Belgique, la France, Andorre l'Espagne et le Portugal, dans cet ordre, à en croire la théorie américaine des dominos et ses hérauts otaniens) n'y changera absolument rien. L'Union européenne n'a aucunement besoin des États-Unis pour assurer sa défense. Le réflexe atlantiste est compréhensible, puisqu'ancré sur des décennies d'habitudes psychologiques et de routine mentale, mais il est de moins en moins nécessaire de nos jours.

https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2025/07/13/la-chine-hyperpuissance-de-la-transition-ecologique_6620973_3234.html

A very interesting proposal. There are other possible locations, of course, one of them being Addis Abeba, the capital city of Ethiopia (one of the new BRICS members) and also the seat of the African Union. Ethiopia's capital may be seen as a more neutral, less controversial and less politically polarizing than a Chinese, Russian, Indian, South African or Brazilian city. Since Shanghai, China's economic metropolis, is already the seat of the group's bank (the New Development Bank), it may certainly be a good idea to decentralize the administrative functions of this expanding economic association. Here's a possible scenario:

GENERAL SECRETARIAT -        Addis Abeba

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR -             Bombay

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR -       Rio de Janeiro

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR -  Cairo

BANKING SECTOR -                  Shanghai

TRADING SECTOR -                  Moscow

MINING SECTOR -                    Johannesburg

FISHING SECTOR -                   Jakarta (or Nusantara)

What about it?

https://www.scmp.com/news/us/article/3317945/rio-de-janeiro-seeks-become-brics-diplomatic-hub-headquarters-proposal?share=KRwyipwY03Tuor%2F9l6cnuttYJeTJGWpg0Mh0J1%2B85W8c7Xs%2BHGc%2F0O6kNlwIGbzu%2BdsMpvNL4vA0XQairzeAisPCX6mXiOHE9nasprDIaQMxIYPxzU2mOnSMq%2BO0dEz5u8ftQOQKwMR3agw54nKnoQ%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share

It is interesting to see how countries line-up in this South Caucasus standoff. On one side: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Israel, Pakistan, and the four Turkish Central Asia republics. On the other: Russia, Armenia, Iran, India, and (through Russia) North Korea. Moreover, Afghanistan is likely to side with Iran and Russia at one point or another, as soon as the movement to recognize the new Taliban government start to spread. It is also very important to notice how China, in all that, is careful to appear 'neutral', aloof, above-the-fray, and able to always plead plausible deniability, whatever happen.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3317921/how-azerbaijan-defies-russia-and-iran-eurasias-new-order?share=OZVomOIbhj1PZ8ZaEeT7eZ%2FEqIt4xg8%2BDcXmykDK6%2FH9ApVFejbdHhnO0UHGKp%2BZSsdg%2F8IwlIWLZ526gBiHjgJydK5BXjFVMGkrA7sXHb%2FB3ESpxRQAwWiSDudUuwFWE2mEREgJAawJoCCEC3WGIA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share

Modern Sociology is under fire Down Under, in the wake of a growing backlash against non-binary, multi-sexual, American-style sociology, the kind that was in vogue in Canada during the ten-years reign of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Since he's gone, CBC/Radio-Canada, the State-owned official media, has stopped making interviews centered around the lives of Drag Queens working in Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal, the three agglomerations where Mr Trudeau's party is the strongest. To be honest, that change in programmation was a relief for most Canadians, especially the heterosexual ones from whom children came from. Sociology as such is not the problem, but the way it depict complex human realities can sometimes be problematic.

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/07/apu-media-release-macquarie-university-announces-plans-to-axe-sociology/

"China already knows a clash over Taiwan would mean that US allies like Japan and Australia would find it virtually impossible to avoid being entangled", according to the article below. The government of China doesn't "know" that. What it does know (and it is quite right about that), is that the Chinese people living on the western shore of the Strait of Taiwan, in Fujian province, are part of the same nation as those living on the eastern shore of the same Strait, in the province of Taiwan. America's powerful navy, plus that country's support of Nationalist China in the Chinese Civil War of the last century, and also the large width of that Strait are the only reasons why the Chinese living in Taiwan province were not reincorporated into China in 1949, the way those living in the other large Chinese island, the one named Hainan, were reincorporated into China the following year, in 1950. That Civil War was interrupted in its natural course by the political intervention of America, and also by geographical considerations, but it is not over, its last part remaining to be acted upon. The reunification the Chinese nation is a matter to be resolved by those directly concerned, that is to say the Chinese living on the western shore of the Strait of Taiwan and those living on eastern shore. That matter is of no concern to America, whoever is currently at the head of its executive branch, that is to say the White House, and whichever political formation is currently in control of its legislative branch, that is to say Congress. It is also of no concern to Japan, Australia or the Philippines, unless their respective governements act in such a way as to interfere deliberately with the resolution of the Chinese Civil War, making their country a party to the final part if that event.

https://theconversation.com/washingtons-war-demands-australia-right-to-refuse-committing-to-a-hypothetical-conflict-with-china-over-taiwan-261076

The Trumpian Trade War, predictably, is starting to have a backfiring effect with America's trading partners, many of them deciding to trade more with each other, like in this case below, involving Southeast Asian countries and European Union countries. The countries forming the EU are still hoping to negociate a better deal with Washington, before the August 1rst deadline, but they're also preparing a possible retaliation tothe unilateral tariffs that Trump wish to impose on them in case those negociations fail to have an effect. Other countries that also are America's trading partners and military allies, like Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea, should draw inspiration from the European Union and prepare an unified response with it, since the present one-on-one type of negociations are exactly the tool; Trump intends to use to extract the most concessions on all those countries. More precisely, to achieve its aim against all those countries, Trump has chosen a forceful (but underhanded) tactic: using the threat of raising trade tariffs in order to force them to increase their budgetary efforts against China and Russia, despite their rising level of indebtment through the annual deficits that they keep incurring since the Reagan years. All the countries that are trading partners and military allies of America, like Canada, in North America, and Australia, in Oceania, but also including the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and South Korea, should present an unified position with the countries of the European Union, coordinating their response among themselves preventively, before the August 1rst deadline. To paraphrase somebody else, if we do not hang together before a common threat, we may each hang out separately one day...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Trump-tariffs/Trump-tariffs-push-Indonesia-Thailand-toward-trade-deals-with-EU

Why is Canada always so supine with his southern neighbor? We should bind with other countries having the same problem, like Australia, Japan, South Korea, the European Union, etc., and work ways to create a united front.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps-tariffs/article/to-whom-it-may-concern-trumps-tariff-letters-cause-a-stir-among-world-leaders/

The new South Korean government is clearly tiptoeing carefully around Washington's susceptibility and Trump's general ineptitude, afraid of both, and quite attracted to the better economic perspectives that a rising China may offer South Korea, as, compared to a declining America. Strangely enough, its wishes are broadly in line with the ideas proposed by the "restrainer" faction in Washington, led by the Vice-President, J.D. Vance, among others. That faction seek a smaller US military, with a small footprint in the West Pacific and a defensive posture away from the first islands chain (Japan / Ryukyus, Formosa / Philippines / Borneo), accompanied by reduced US garrisons in both South Korea and Okinawa.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/South-Korea-states-intent-to-take-wartime-military-control-from-US

This article is very informative about Guyana as a country, more precisely the oil-induced economic boom of recent years, the presence in that country of a numerous Indian community, its sometimes difficult relations with the also very numerous Afro-Guyanese community, whose leanings are more pro-Chinese, the importance of both India and China in the inner workings of Guyana, a country who is located just to the north of Brasil (a member of the BRICS economic association, like India and China), and to the east of Venezuela, a country which has very difficult relations with the US and who also entertains territorial claims to a vast swath of Guyanese territory.

Add to that already potent mix, the Indian-Chinese rivalry and the presence of important Indian migrants communities all around the Indian Ocean, with important concentrations:

A) in Singapore, Malaysia and Myanmar, in the northeastern quarter of that Ocean,

B) in the Arab Emirates, Kuweit and Saudi Arabia, in the northwestern quarter, and

C) in Mauritius and South Africa, in the southwestern quarter.

Incidentally, even if the French overseas department of La Réunion, near Mauritius, does not appear on the map, it also has an important Indian communities. With China more or less stable demographic situation and continuing economic rise, the Indian Ocean is becoming more important, geopolitically, even though the Pacific Ocean remains its most important maritime priority, especially its vast western expanses, between the island of Guam and the major port of Shanghai, politically. Economically, Chinese trading activity is already intense on that Pacific Ocean, with a volume that should keep increasing in time, between the Chinese mainland, on the one hand and, on the other, the countries of Northeast Asia, of Oceania, of North America and of Latin America.

China is also using the Pacific has a conduit leading to the Oceans located beyond that, that is to say to:

1. the Indian Ocean (South Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa),

2. the Arctic Ocean (Northern Russia) and

3. the Atlantic Ocean.

Eventually, India, still in demographic and economic boom, but whose industrial revolution is about thirty years behind China's, will grow more influent politically, decade after decade. Then, the presence of those many Indian migrant communities all around the Indian Ocean may possibly take a bigger importance than today, making them natural relays of economic relations.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Immigration/Indian-diaspora-leads-world-s-fastest-growing-economy-Guyana

This is a truly remarkable article, lucid and clear-minded about the changes happening across the globe these last years, politically, economically and monetarily. Those changes can be perceived in different ways. One way to see it is that the world is in transition between a Western-centered geopolitical system to a Asian-centered geopolitical system. Another is that the world is moving to a multipolar situation, after a brief unipolar phase at the end of a long rivalry between the US and the USSR, both superpowers having then been in a bipolar opposition.

It can also be seen as a series of gradual, if tortuous, transitions between successive bipolar worlds:

1) US/USSR, then, after a few decades,

2) US/PRC, then, after a few decades,

3) PRC/India, possibly.

After that, then, who knows?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jul/16/trust-in-the-us-is-eroding-the-question-isnt-if-the-dollar-will-lose-supremacy-its-when?CMP=share_btn_url

Because of Indonesia's posture, political leanings and geographic location, that country hold a joker card that may nullify the strengthening of American bases and facilities in the northern half of Australia. Recent moves showing that Washington is considering removing US troops from South Korea and Okinawa in order to beef up its defensive capabilities on Guam, located along the second island chain, suggest a coming change in strategic thinking about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, along the first island chain. Washington, painfully aware of its budget fragility and naval inferiority, and uncertain about the attitude of its traditional allies in the Western Pacific, amid the trade war currently at play, is being cautious toward China's slow and gradual rise in military power. Seoul's new government aim for a stronger economic relationship with China, and probably feel relieved by Pyongyang's growing involvement in Eastern Europe, lowering tensions on the peninsula. That may be why it sought to have direct operational control over its own armed forces in the event of war, as opposed to let the Pentagone be in complete control of all military forces in South Korea in such a situation. As for Tokyo and Manila, they too wish for more economic cooperation with Beijing, but they also are the object of territorial claims by China, and they both have to follow a narrow lane between two potential dangers: an emerging political power to the west, and a receding and unpredictable one to the east, frustrated by its trading deficiencies and its monetary vulnerability with much of the rest of the world.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-studiously-ignored-problem-force-projected-from-australia-must-go-through-indonesia/

Afghanistan is a land that connect Central Asia to the Indian subcontinent. It also connect Iran, part of the Middle East, to the Sinkiang autonomous region, in the northwestern quarter of China. One may add other assets to the strategic location of the country: its impressive range of minerals of all kind, its agricultural potential, and the presence of a huge ang growing pool of low-cost labor. For all those reason, its eventual inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and also in the BRICS economic association would seem to be natural, given enough mutual good will on the security issue, and something that may prove to be beneficial to all involved parties. Most of the population of Afghanistan being dirt poor presently, the country certainly can benefit from investments coming from all over Asia: the Middle East, South Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, the European Union, and the Far East, including South Korea and Japan. In that sense, if all goes well in the next few decades, Afghanistan may one day stop being synonymous with "endless wars", "terrorism", or "forlorn mountainous fortress", and become a key part of the Euro-Asiatic continent.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Russia-China-shake-up-Eurasian-order-with-Taliban-rapprochement

A very interesting article about Penang, in Malaysia, and the path it has been following economically and politically since colonial days...

https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/07/17/welcome-to-asias-secret-silicon-island

Curieusement, Trump ne se conduit pas comme un président des États-Unis, mais comme le président des États rouges, c'est-à-dire républicains. La polarisation du système politique américain est devenue si intense qu'elle semble transcender l'habituel patriotisme pan-américain. L'allégeance fondamentale des Républicains est dirigée envers leur formation politique, pas envers l'ensemble du pays. Il suffit de regarder Fox News de temps à autre pour voir combien les divisions internes prennent le pas sur toutes autres considérations. Les Républicains craignent la Chine, mais cette crainte est teintée d'envie. Ils détestent les Démocrates encore davantage que les Chinois (et avec une passion évidente), peut-être parce que les Démocrates sont bien plus proches d'eux, géographiquement et culturellement, comparativement aux Chinois. Pour un résident du Nebraska, Shanghai est loin et constitue quelque chose d'abstrait, alors que Los Angeles est bien plus proche et représente une réalité concrète et familière. C'est un peu comme si Los Angeles devenait une ville étrangère aux yeux de plusieurs Républicains, cessant d'être la deuxième plus populeuse métropole américaine pour devenir une ville pleine de migrants mexicains plus ou moins légaux et plus ou moins loyaux. Quelque chose de similaire semble se produire avec New-York, plus grande agglomération américaine et capitale économique officieuse, maintenant perçue comme une ville qui s'apprête à se donner un maire démocrate, musulman et marxiste tout à la fois. On se rappellera qu'Obama, lorsqu'il était président, était lui aussi perçu, par plusieurs Américains, comme un démocrate, un musulman et un marxiste. C'était surtout vrai des moins éduqués et des plus riches, deux groupes d'électeurs bien distincts qui, ensemble, constituent justement la base électorale du président Trump. Le premier de ces deux groupes risque de pâtir des politiques trumpiennes, alors que le second devrait en bénéficier. Une déchirure profonde semble se dessiner dans le tissu socio-économique américain. C'est un peu comme lorsqu'un couple divorce et que les liens d'attachement se défont l'un après l'autre, remplacés parfois par une profonde indifférence, parfois par un rejet aussi fort que l'attirance d'antan. Cette déchirure pourrait aboutir à une fragmentation géographique du système politique américain, écartelé à la fois par la concurrence économique de la Chine (et des autres pays bricsiens) et par les effets néfastes des politiques trumpiennes, celles-ci risquant d'aboutir à la création d'un groupe peu nombreux de privilégiés et d'une masse énorme de perdants pouvant se compter par dizaines de millions.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/7/17/trump-administration-pulls-4bn-in-funds-for-high-speed-rail-in-california

Un article très intéressant sur la contre-révolution trumpienne, son impact, ses effets, ses racines et sa recherche d'alliés en Europe. On y devine une volonté (et, malheureusement, une capacité) de se perpétuer dans le temps, notamment à travers le vice-président américain actuel, James David Vance.

https://www.lemonde.fr/m-le-mag/article/2025/07/18/les-envoyes-tres-speciaux-de-la-diplomatie-americaine-pour-evangeliser-l-europe_6621874_4500055.html

Si l'on songe aux inquiétudes légitimes que le barrage hydro-électrique éthiopien de la Renaissance, sur le Nil bleu, a suscité plus bas en aval, au Soudan et, surtout, en Égypte, il est permis de penser que les répercussions que ce colossal projet chinois pourraient avoir pour le Bangladesh et l'Inde vont entraîner beaucoup de discussions entre les trois pays impliqués, avant même que soit levée la première pelletée de terre officielle. Cela dit, un tel projet, s'il voit le jour, devrait avoir au moins deux grandes conséquences. Tout d'abord, son ampleur même (trois fois la capacité du barrage des Trois-Gorges en matière d'énergie produite) va faciliter beaucoup la décarbonation du secteur énergétique de la Chine. Cependant, à la vitesse que se fait actuellement la mise en service des nouvelles installations solaires et éoliennes, par les temps qui courent, il est possible que cela n'ait finalement qu'un impact relativement mineur, surtout si cela prends quinze ou vingt ans avant de pouvoir mettre en service le nouveau barrage en question. Un autre impact prévisible sera d'ordre économique. La mise en disponibilité d'un tel volume d'énergie ne pourra qu'avoir des retombées considérables en terme de développement économique. Une partie pourrait possiblement être écoulée à l'exportation, entraînant des recettes additionnelles pour la Chine. Cela présuppose des ententes avec l'Inde, limitrophe de la Chine dans cette zone. D'autres pays situés à proximité pourraient aussi être impliqués, comme le Bhoutan, le Bangladesh ou le Myanmar. Localement, le site se trouve sur le territoire de la région autonome du Tibet. Le barrage, construit en travers du Bhramapoutre, créerait un énorme réservoir en amont. Un peu plus haut sur le fleuve, doit être construit un énorme centre de traitement de données, aménagé dans le cadre du programme chinois "Données de l'est, calculs de l'ouest", visant à implanter une série de centres de calcul dans la partie occidentale de la République populaire de Chine, afin de faciliter son développement économique par rapport au reste du pays. La capitale du Tibet, Lhassa, se trouve non loin de ce centre, sur un affluent du fleuve. Pour des raisons de simple proximité géographique et pour minimiser les pertes d'énergie le long des lignes électriques, on peut raisonnablement supposer qu'au moins une partie du volume généré sera consommé non loin, au Tibet, sûrement, ainsi que dans les provinces voisines du Yunnan et du Sichuan, à des fins diverses, résidentielle et commerciale, mais aussi industrielle, minière et agricole (via la production en serres, par exemple). C'est donc tout le quart sud-ouest de la Chine qui serait transformé en profondeur par un tel projet hydro-électrique, pharaonique dans ses dimensions.

https://www.energy-reporters.com/environment/energy-superweapon-activated-worlds-biggest-hydroelectric-dam-gets-green-light-and-signals-a-new-era-of-power-domination/

Un article éclairant sur la présence de plus en plus visible de la Chine en Afrique, au plan économique, mais aussi politique et militaire. Cela fait des décennies que la Chine étend son influence sur le continent africain. L'Asie, l'Europe et l'Afrique, au plan strictement géographique, forment une seule masse continentale, grâce à l'isthme de Suez, en Égypte. Plus encore, au plan maritime, le canal de Suez constitue un passage obligé entre la Méditerranée et la mer Rouge, c'est-à-dire entre l'Europe occidentale et l'Extrême-Orient, et la zone du canal est de plus en plus industrialisée, avec des entreprises venues de partout dans le monde. Si la présente guerre moyen-orientale, entre Israël et ses nombreux ennemis, finit par se terminer un jour, il deviendra possible d'aménager des corridors terrestres de transport et de communication entre la partie africaine de cette masse continentale et la partie eurasiatique. Le territoire israélien est incontournable à ce chapitre, s'étendant de la mer Méditerranée (Ashkelon, près de Gaza) à la mer Rouge (Eilat).

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3318574/how-china-leapfrogs-other-nations-build-close-african-trade-and-military-ties?share=3tYkO895A%2BkizVppgRi6X62vdAeCLiTM2QKlPMHlfvEn8RTh3RyAejYeZE9X8TEyofz729l2r05tRFjpK8sn8uUYcb4jbSyzEa7gXOOrFbiDCFs1LVSact1b2C5rSgsQluf3m5MhezzjU0y7LsnSpA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share