WW3 AND TRUMP 2.0...

 

Here's a series of publications on X (Twitter) in the last few weeks, as combat continues to rage in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and as tensions keep rising here and there, along the line of contact between the Eurasian powers (BRICS) and the Western powers (G7), all around Eurasia, including in the Indian subcontinent and in East Asia. The presidential election in the United States (and especially the growing prospect of a second Trump mandate) will certainly be important in determining the course of what many observers are already starting to call the Third World War...

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(September 30, 2024)

A direct claim of China on the Andamans and Nicobar archipelagos is a possibility, as stated in this 2016 article in the Indian press. It is also mentioned in the last edition of the American publication The Diplomat.

Another possibility is a claim made by Myanmar, an ally of China. That country already own the islands to the north of the two archipelagos. Geographical proximity might thus be invoqued, and possibly historical anteriority too.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion/op-ed/130716/periscope-watch-china-it-may-be-eyeing-andamans.html

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(October 2, 2024)

A part of the population of Taiwan wish for reunification with the mainland, an event that would put an end to the Chinese Civil war of the XXth century, and reunitr the rebellious province with the rest of China.

That reunification will probably happen in the coming years or decades. The most important question is how it will be done: willingly or unwilligly? Peacefully or not peacefully?

The first option is to be preferred, for obvious reasons. But the second one cannot be excluded.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/We-are-Chinese-KMT-lawmaker-challenges-president-on-Taiwan-s-nature

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(October 3, 2024)

The recent changes in the internal political life of Taiwan will possibly help in reducing the tensions with the mainland and diminishing the prospect of an invasion of the wayward province. Taiwan is a Chinese province ruled by a different political system, but its social body (except for the Austonesian minority, of course) remains an integral part of Chinese society as a whole, to which it will probably be reunited one day, hopefully in a peaceful manner.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3280974/taiwan-revives-roc-red-white-and-blue-double-tenth-day-dpp-loses-legislative-sway?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

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(October 4, 2024)

Une trentaine de cratères sur la seule base aérienne de Nevatim, ça laisse entendre que des dizaines de missiles iraniens ont passé à travers le fameux Dome de fer israélien, uniquement pour cette base. Si l'on tient compte des autres missiles iraniens, envoyés vers diverses installations de Tel Aviv et vers la base de Hetzarim, et si l'on suppose que la même chose y est survenue, on peut penser que le taux de succès de ce système de défense a été assez bas, somme toute, pour cette deuxième volée.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-images-satellites-revelent-les-degats-des-missiles-iraniens-sur-une-base-israelienne-20241004?

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(October 10, 2024)

A lucid analysis. Trump does set the tone in policies, from tips to China. And that is a scary thought, given the size and importance of America in the world, in many fields: economically, politically, culturally, and militarily.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/10/the-trumpification-of-american-policy

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(October 19, 2024)

A Trump election will have an impact on the conflicts currently waged around Eurasia's rim.

There's presently two fronts: Eastern Europe and the Middle East. In the first case, both belligerent countries are benefiting from external support. Ukraine is getting help from the United States and Western Europe, while Russia increasingly receives help from from Iran and China, and now North Korea, first with munitions, then with troops, in that last case. Twelve thousand North Korean soldiers may soon join the fight in Ukraine, a number that may possibly rise with time.

In the case of the Middle East, something similar is occurring, with many of the same participants. Israel is getting the support of the United States and Western Europe, while the Palestinians have the active backing of Iran and its proxys. China and North Korea are not actively involved, so far, while Russia is deepening its ties with Iran.

There is also the pervasive danger of the creation of a third front, in East Asia. This area is already in tension because of the quarrels in the South China Sea and also because of the threat of invasion in Taiwan.

Since 2022, the conflict has been growing between the declining Western countries and the rising Eurasian powers. The events of the next few years are not known, of course, but it is quite possible that, one day, the historians of the future will call the whole thing the Third World War.

https://asia.nikkei.com/?n_cid=NARAN190&gad_source=1

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/North-Korea-has-sent-3-000-troops-to-Russia-for-Ukraine-says-Seoul

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(October 19, 2024)

A Trump presidency 2.0 may have very bad consequences on the health of the US economy, already fragilized by huge trade and budget deficits.

There is a growing possibility that Trump, next month, may be able to repeat his feat of 2015, that is to say being supported by less voters than his democratic adversary, but by more great electors, resulting in his victory.

If that is how things are to turn out, it will be bad economically for America, but good politically, in the sense that Trump is likely to resort to isolationist policies during his new mandate, pushing America out of the center stage of world events, and thus starting a rebuilding process in that still powerful but quite overstretched imperial power.

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(October 20, 2024)

The recent fall of a pro-India government in Bangladesh is certainly a matter of concern for New Delhi, just like the inroads made by China in the Maldives and Sri Lanka, respectively located to the southwest and southeast of the tip of the Indian subcontinent.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3282971/chinas-navy-docks-bangladesh-india-watches-growing-concern?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/true-dangers-trumps-economic-plans

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)