WILL SYRIA REBOUND?

 

(The fall of the Assad governement happened so fast it surprised everyone, save, of course, those who organized it from the start, out of sight. Here, the reader will find are a series of short-texts published on X today, November 9th, 2024)

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Fragmentation is the operative word now in Syria. Two different rebel factions (the largest one US-backed, Turkish-backed and Israeli-backed, while the other is difficult to assess), plus the US-backed Kurds in the Northeast, and quite possibly the Russian-backed Alaouites in the Northwest. The whole thing is a big mess. China is offering her economic help, while Biden is a lame duck, with only a few weeks in front of him, and Trump is looking inward and wants to cut governement cost.

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/07/the-fall-of-syrias-dictator

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Is the rebels's victory in Syria the result of a mainly homegrown campaign, as professed in this Foreign Affairs article?

The winning side in this event is composed of the various rebel forces, yes, but also of a good number of foreign governments, including those of the United States, Israel, Turkiye, and various Arab states. Iran and Russia, the countries who are in effect the gatekeepers of China, as members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, protecting Eurasia in general (and the Middle Kingdom in particular), on its western side, are evident losers here, politically and militarily, at least for the moment, but they are not the only ones. Among them must also be ranked the whole Syrian population, the whole Lebanese population, and the Palestinian nation. That nation will remain stateless, at least for a while, especially those living inside the Gaza Strip, whose survivors will find themselves back under Israeli military control after a few years of self-rule, under the aegis of the political and military branches of Hamas, the de facto Gazan government. Stateless will also remain the Palestinians living in the West Bank, those living in East Jerusalem, and those living inside the borders of pre-1967 Israel, the only ones with legitimate and real political rights. What is Jerusalem endgame here, besides protecting its lebensraum at all cost and expanding it at every opportunity? The Palestinians and their plight are at the source of the terrorists attacks that drove the US to invade two sovereign countries, Irak and Afghanistan. They are also the fundamental cause of the ten of thousands of deaths that have occurred all over the Middle East since October 2023. What to do about the oppressed, occupied, and state-deprived Palestinians? And what to do about the land-hungry, blood-covered, and imperialistic state of Israel?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/day-after-bashar-al-assad-russia-iran

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Syria may well turn into another Lybia and Irak, torned and fragmented. What will the next US administration do? It is one thing to say that "it is not our fight," and it is quite another thing if the American president, next year, chose to keep military bases in Kurdish-controlled territory, not forgetting the small one in the southeast that is not shown on The Economist map. The Economist is right to think that there is a good chance that the four main factions can not find common ground and that the creation of a single central government proves to be difficult, ir even impossible. The danger of a division of Syria in antagonistic parts is real. Given the role likely played by the Israeli government in the fall of the Assad dynasty, and the ongoing massacre occuring on the territory under its militarily control, especially in the Gaza Strip, given its probable intent to annex North-Gaza, the West-Bank (in one piece or piecemeal), and also, possibly, the UN-hold territory it has recently occupied along its border with Syria, the sovereign governments of the Arab countries may legitimately asked themselves if they should not do what the sovereign governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have recently done: order the closing of foreign military bases on their soil. (In the specific case of the three Sahelian countries, the US and French bases were replaced with Russian ones, as everybody knows). Somewhat ironically, the closure of American bases all over the Arab world would contribute to the huge savings Mr. Trump is planning to attain through his DOGE initiative.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3290052/china-faces-test-syria-ties-after-beijing-friendly-bashar-al-assad-flees?share=vLbQ5IKsxE2CBmnRntloT5ZHXc7%2FFCryaMe%2F5LrnPLWRaVyLvai%2BbchqmYG4UK64cxKL569syruv6Ctb1z%2Bo53QMxVthNdOxEJYJ8WDa%2BGkJV0IEDD%2FLsRqO3fTDSnTTXRhkpc7Ajk4JzQttGeN5hw%3D%3D

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China clearly wish Syria to fall into its economic sphere of influence, as opposed to the American's sphere. Turkiye role in the rebellion is difficult to assess. It is still a part of NATO, but it is now in line to become a fully fledged member of the BRICS economic association. Whether the ex-president is now in Lattakie, on the Mediteranean coast, or in Russia, with his family, the littoral part of Syria is the seat of two Russian military bases and also the region where the Alaouites, a Chiite Syrian minority, is mainly concentrated. The way things stand now is that most of Syria is under the sway of the rebels, the Northeast is under the thumb of the Kurdish minority, protected by American soldiers (it is quite possible that the oil there more than pay for the American military presence). As for the coast, its future is unclear but a kind of Russian-backed and Iranian-backed rump-state political status is certainly possible. In the long-run, China holds the most important cards, given the huge cost of rebuilding the war-devastated country. The de facto convergence of strategic aims between China, Iran and Russia may be decisive, not now, of course, but later on, sur la longue durée.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3289876/assad-regime-falls-china-urges-syria-ensure-safety-chinese-nationals

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This article shows how intense has become the suffering of the Syrian population after ten years of fighting and disruptions of all sorts. Syrians need respite and peace. It is undeniable, but they may not get it. Much would depend on the way power is exerted in that country in the coming weeks or months. Will the four main factions divide or unite? Will the country fracture in the long-term, like Lybia and Irak?

Russia and America both have military bases in Syria. Israel has bases there, too, on the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory that was taken militarily by it and annexed afterward. Iran and Turkiye have political influence there, also, through armed militias and/or military bases, and China has economic influence through investments. Add to that the diverse ethno-religious mosaic of the population (Sunnites, Chiites, Christians, Druzes, Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, etc), plus the fact that the rebel offensive against Damas was made by two quite different factions, one coming from the north and one coming from the south. The Western world has won this round, clearly, that is to say America and its two military allies, Israel and Turkiye, while Russia and Iran suffered a setback, and China is trying to see how to position itself in the area in the future. The Israeli war, started by the de facto governement of the self-ruled Gaza Strip, that is to say the political branch of Hamas, is still evolving. Fighting and mass-killing of civilians still goes on inside the Gaza Strip, while Israel maintains its presence inside Lebanon and increases it inside Syria (by expanding its footprint eastward, beyond the annexed Golan Heights). It also continues to discriminate against the Palestinians living in the West Bank and Jerusalem-East, devoid of political rights and treated as cattle that need to be pushed aside, in order to make room for Israeli settlers. The Palestinians' plight is no laughing matter. Only the two states' solutions can provide a long-term solution to it, through a military defeat, an economic boycott, or diplomatic isolation, or all of the above. The current far-right Israeli government will not last forever. Already unpopular inside Israel, before the present war, it will probably fall at the next election, modifying the whole picture again. What does Israel want? Does it wish to expand forever, buying its territorial growth with Arab blood, the way it has done since 1948? Does it need lebensraum that much? Does it wish to live in peace with its neighbors, or does it prefer to wage endless wars against them, till it meet an enemy stronger than itself? Qui vit par l'épée meurt par l'épée.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3290052/china-faces-test-syria-ties-after-beijing-friendly-bashar-al-assad-flees?share=vLbQ5IKsxE2CBmnRntloT5ZHXc7%2FFCryaMe%2F5LrnPLWRaVyLvai%2BbchqmYG4UK64cxKL569syruv6Ctb1z%2Bo53QMxVthNdOxEJYJ8WDa%2BGkJV0IEDD%2FLsRqO3fTDSnTTXRhkpc7Ajk4JzQttGeN5hw%3D%3D

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)