VIETNAM WAR AND AMERICAN PHILIPPINES

 

Of the Association of Southeast Asian's ten countries, Vietnam and the Philippines seem to be coalescing into two key US allies in its growing rivalry with the People's Republic of China.

One thing that's common to both of them is the deep impression left by America on their populations. Vietnam was, of course, the site of the war of the same name, with millions of deaths (mainly on the Vietnamese side), uncounted damages and untold suffering. America's military might certainly be visible for everyone to see, back then.

As for the Filipino republic, it used to be America's only colony, having been taken from Spain in what may have been a made-up war (given the mysterious and still-unexplained blow-up of the Maine battleship). Among other notable territories captured through that war, and still held by the USA, one can mention Guam and Puerto Rico.

Add to all that, the conflict between the two countries, the communist Vietnam and the capitalist Philippines and China, over the disputed waters of the South China Sea. The Paracel islands, off the coast of Vietnam, are occupied by China and that country also hold a shoal claimed by Manilla. One can also mention the long, very long time (no less than a millennium!) that was involuntary spent by the Vietnamese people under the aegis of Imperial China.

Those elements may easily explain why those two countries are quite ready to resist the strong attraction represented by the economic benefits that may be coming from increased trade with China, and why they sided by the US, at least in words. In an eventual war over Taiwan, they would likely help the US or stay neutral (for fear of Chinese retaliations). In the case of the Philippines, that help is especially important, since it complete the defensive arc that America is building in support of Taiwan, from the Japanese archipelago, through the Ryukyu archipelago, though the island of Taiwan, and on to the Philippines archipelago. Taiwan, in that system, is the keystone holding everything together.

Thailand is officially allied with the US, but its army has ties with the Burmese military and Chinese companies are investing a lot in that country, notably in the automobile industry. As for Singapore, it also leans the way of Washington, but its population is small, and mainly Chinese in ancestry, making it a possibly doubtful ally.

The factors mentioned above about Vietnam and the Philippines decrease the likelihood of those two countries becoming willing partners of the growing Chinese sphere of influence, at least in the short-term. That sphere of influence may eventually extend over most of the Afro-Eurasian landmass, including most members of the ASEAN.

A war over Taiwan appears more and more inevitable, but probably not right now. The attitude of those two countries may of course change in the coming five to ten years.

* * *

MORE:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)