THE COMING STORM

 

(Messages posted on X these last weeks /

Messages publiés sur X au cours des dernières semaines)

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January 2, 2024

This is a fascinating article about one of the many avenues of commerce between Europe and Asia, especially the Far East. Geographical constraints mean that overland trade between these two important economic poles may use: A) the northern corridor, north of the Caspian Sea, through Russian and Byelorussian territory, B) the middle corridor, through the Caspian Sea, avoiding thus completely the need to cross Russian and Byelorussian territory, or C) the southern corridor, south of the Caspian Sea, through Iranian territory. The last one (C) is less direct, thus less economic and less useful, in the case of trade between China and Europe, implying a long detour for goods to transit though the countries of Central Asia. In the case of trade between the countries of the Indian subcontinent (and those of continental Southeast Asia, farther away) and the countries of Europe, though, it follows a convenient route and will probably gain in importance with the passage of time. The main weakness of the middle corridor is the need to physically transfer goods between two very different transport modes (trains and ships) at both shores of the Caspian Sea. For this reason, and also because the current political tensions created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine are bound to slowly start to diminish as soon as the war cease, one way or another, the middle corridor will probably keep a low profile in the long run, with a relatively smaller volume of goods, compared with the northern corridor (China/Europe) and, eventually, the southern corridor (India/Europe) too. The arrival of a new Trumpian administration in America may also play a role in that, helping many European governments realize that their economic future is more tied with the rest of the Eurasian/African hemisphere than with the American hemisphere.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Recent-deals-show-value-of-Trans-Caspian-route-in-turbulent-times

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2 janvier 2024

Voici un article qui campe bien les défis de la Pologne d'aujourd'hui, découlant de son histoire difficile et de sa géographie ingrate. Un nouveau rempart européen se dessine de plus en plus dans l'axe Pologne / Carpathes / Roumanie, remplaçant l'ancien rempart otanien Allemagne / Alpes / Italie. L'Ukraine étant probablement destinée à se fondre dans un ensemble comprenant aussi la Biélorussie et Russie, tandis que l'Amérique trumpienne rêve de plus en plus de repli sur soi et d'isolationnisme, il est fort possible que l'Union européenne se voit un jour contrainte à assumer elle-même sa propre défense au plan sécuritaire, tout en coopérant plus étroitement avec les pays bricsiens d'Eurasie au plan économique. Les quatre prochaines années risquent d'être pleines de rebondissements...

https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/01/europe-geopolitique-le-moment-polonais/

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January 2, 2024

This is a very important article for anyone who wish to deepen his understanding of the roots of the long-running Israeli Palestinian conflict. It is not clear what is meant by the expression "unitary state". It seems to imply a greater Israel created through the annexation of both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. If so, such a thing would create a state where about half the population is Hebrew-speaking Israeli, while the other half is made up of Arabic-speaking Palestinian. In a scenario like this, the Palestinians living in the current West Bank and Gaza Strip are likely to be denied the political rights that are enjoyed by the Palestinian minority living now in pre-1967 Israel. They would thus have a status similar to the Palestinians who are living in East-Jerusalem, a territory already annexed by Israel and inhabited by a mix of Israelis settlers with political rights and Palestinians without political rights. Given the high birthrate existing among Palestinians, such a Great Israel could easily become an unstable powder keg.

https://johnmenadue.com/the-fall-of-israel/

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January 3, 2024

Mr. Chang's worries may well become realities in the coming months and years, as Mr. Trump takes the reins of the US government a second time. The world needs more trade, not more trade wars. It needs a greater effort toward justice, not a smaller one. It needs an America that favors green technologies at home and peace-oriented policies in its international relations, not an America that prioritizes fossil fuels and obsesses about its hegemonic position in the world. Donald Trump is offering easy solutions for difficult problems, demagogic attitudes instead of courageous stands. His policies will probably hurt America a lot more than the rest of the world...

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3293002/how-global-south-can-resist-us-hegemony-and-its-isolationism?share=030SuMgnaZq7hgKX2p43a1M3kKIHyKL8Vi2txWUQmwodVIfoN1JZC%2FUSvHkIbqOK%2Fo7ob87JGZ5au9sUQ9oJQnKUHr6A4FmxOXxTlCPRl%2FvBnTeuP7InlOdOiT9TlcsV1rtBwb6%2BJl5m5mgQ%2Fciqlg%3D%3D

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4 janvier 2024

Visiblement, on parle ici d'un changement de régime pour toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest, sur le plan économique. Au tournant des années '50 et '60, un autre changement de régime s'est produit dans cette région, au plan politique, avec l'accession à la souveraineté de la plupart des colonies européennes de ce secteur, tout comme dans le reste de l'Afrique en général, avec quelques exceptions importantes (colonies portugaises, Rhodésie, Afrique du Sud, notamment). En revanche, au plan économique, les liens entre les nouveaux pays et leurs anciennes métropoles ont été davantage marqués par la continuité que par la rupture. C’était aussi le cas sur le plan politico-militaire, dans le cas des anciennes colonies françaises. Ce que l'on observe de plus en plus, ces dernières années, au plan économique, c'est l'émergence graduelle de l'influence des puissances eurasiennes, telles que la Chine ou la Russie, mais aussi l'Inde et les Émirats arabes unis, entre autres, accompagné d'un reflux relatif de l'influence occidentale. C'est assez patent en Afrique de l'Ouest, particulièrement dans les zones sahéliennes de l'intérieur. L'apparition d'une alliance militaire entre le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, ainsi que d'une amorce de confédération politique et des mouvements d'intégration sociale et culturelle de ces peuples islamisés depuis des siècles, est un fait marquant et porteur d'avenir, d'autant plus que le regroupement en cours pourrait s'élargir progressivement au Tchad voisin, voire à la Mauritanie. Sans surprise, les trois pays de l'alliance sahélienne, sous la protection militaire de la Russie, sont maintenant l'objet d'une présence grandissante de la Chine au plan économique. Inévitablement, à la longue, tout cela entraînera d'importantes conséquences sur l'évolution des autres pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, les pays guinéens qui s'égrènent tout au long de la côte du golfe de Guinée, du Sénégal au Nigéria, un secteur où les populations locales ont été plus profondément et plus longtemps marquées par la présence des anciennes puissances coloniales. Comment se fera la conciliation entre les influences occidentales et les influences eurasiennes dans ces pays guinéens et sahéliens, au cours des prochaines années, dans un contexte où les besoins économiques sont immenses, où la croissance démographique est rapide et où les gouvernements se doivent de multiplier au maximum les sources d'investissements possibles, afin de mieux servir leurs populations? Nous le saurons au cours des années à venir...

https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2025/01/03/dans-l-ombre-de-la-russie-la-chine-pousse-ses-pions-dans-les-mines-du-sahel_6479883_3212.html?lmd_medium=al&lmd_campaign=envoye-par-appli&lmd_creation=android&lmd_source=default

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January 6, 2024

The only place where sizable cuts can be made to the US federal budget, realistically, is the defence budget. That scenario is likely to be rejected by the coming Trump 2.0 administration, at least at first. Still, necessity should eventually prevail: where else can big enough cuts be made?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/america-would-be-toast-elon-musk-warns-of-bankruptcy-and-rising-interest-rates-due-to-36-trillion-debt/articleshow/116972361.cms

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January 6, 2024

This is a very interesting article. In the wake of the Gaza genocide, perpetrated by Israel, with support from its American ally and many other Western countries, the world has entered a new era where the global majority wish more and more to de-Americanize and de-Westernize its way of seeing things. Pushed by events that are occurring in front of their eyes, it seems that new attitudes and mindsets have start to evolve among ordinary people all over the planet, from Mexico to Mombasa, from Dakar to Djakarta, changing the world in which we all live.

https://johnmenadue.com/the-west-and-the-rest-how-genocide-in-gaza-will-usher-in-the-end-of-his-story/

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January 7, 2024

It is obviously difficult to keep an accurate tally of the Bricsian countries. There's two categories (members and partners) and many countries who are not members or partners have expressed an interest to join, have declined to join or are still undecided about an invitation to join. Here's a rundown of the BRICS as of now. Core members of the original BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China. First new member: South Africa. Second batch of new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates (2024). Third batch of new member: Indonesia (2025). First batch of partners: Bolivia, Cuba, Uganda, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Malaysia (2025). Has been invited to join as member but has declined: Argentina (2023). Has been invited to join as member but has not accepted so far: Saudi Arabia. Have been invited to join as partners but have not accepted so far: Algeria, Nigeria, Turkiye, Vietnam. It just shows that the BRICS is a living reality that keep changing its nature and composition over time.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/ASEAN-s-interest-in-BRICS-is-a-hedge-against-Trump

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January 7, 2024

This new Foreign Affairs article is an impressive and masterful analysis of America's strengths and weaknesses in this difficult period, when the start of a new cold war threatens to turn into something much more dangerous. But the recommendations are vague and too general, probably because many of the policies that will be set by the incoming Trump 2.0 administration are still unformulated publicly. As for those who have already been publicly announced, there is a possibility that it was with the objective of anticipating events, of intimidating recipients or of testing the water. What is known is not reassuring. For instance, Donald Trump seems to think that a trade deficit only occurs when a foreign country rip off America. It may mean a series of trade wars between the US and a long list of countries around the world: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the European Union countries, the ASEAN countries, etc. In such a scenario, it is doubtful that America will end up the winner in the long term. Worse, the next Commander in Chief seems to seek an increase in the US defence budget, despite the growing national debt and the recurring annual deficits. Dancing on the rim of a dormant volcano is one thing. Doing it while lobbing grenades and bombs inside the crater is another, quite different thing. The next four years may turn out to be extremely dangerous for all this planet's inhabitants...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/strange-triumph-broken-america-michael-beckley

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10 janvier 2024

...et pendant ce temps, Trump veut que les pays européens, dont bien sûr la France, augmentent leurs dépenses militaires jusqu'à 5 % de leur budget par année. Il y a longtemps que de Gaulle aurait botté les Américains dans le derrière et mis l'accent sur la souveraineté stratégique de l'Union européenne, arguant avec raison que l'UE n'a pas besoin de l'OTAN et qu'elle peut très bien s'en passer. Qu'attends la France pour démontrer son leadership européen, se détacher des États-Unis sur le plan politique, convaincre l'UE de créer ses propres institutions sur le plan militaire et se rapprocher de la Chine sur le plan économique?

https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/les-taux-francais-flambent-au-plus-haut-depuis-2011-20250109?

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January 11, 2024

This increased cooperation between China and Indonesia over their coastguards’ operations, is significant, especially in the wake of Indonesia becoming a full member of the BRICS economic association just a few days ago. Indonesia is the most populous country in the ASEAN regional group and the one with the bigger economy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3294372/chinese-and-indonesian-coastguards-pledge-deeper-cooperation-after-first-high-level-talks?share=VL6UVIl5egZQD4LQWXHjvAwErOd2YVs%2Ft3Q7fnMamPM27fMqYOTGQc%2FeYQWUd1AnkG7APSt4z2K%2B6XCwT10Pai2HP9R0OVfHVU8swo9DwwI0p%2BKyRq5%2FXfHC3o5YUnNUSvnC90zvCNMmlBdLOPAP%2Fw%3D%3D

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January 11, 2024

Here's an excellent article about what may be in store for the world with the coming of Trump 2.0 in a few days. Remember that the Trumpians have two years in front of them where they pretty much can do whatever they want to do with their country, being able to count on the support of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, the Supreme Court and a sizable portion of the press. The midterms, two years from now, may erode and weaken that powerful configuration, of course. So, it is probable that things will move very fast in the next two years...

https://johnmenadue.com/after-the-trump-inauguration/

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)