RISING TENSIONS AROUND EURASIA

 

These posts on X (Twitter) have been published in the last weeks. They describe the rising tensions all around the Eurasian landmass, from Ukraine to the Middle East, and then to East Asia and the South China Sea. That arc of tensions separates the expanding Chinese sphere of influence, as represented in part by the BRICS economic association and also by the SCO political association, and the receding Western sphere of influence, centered on the United States. Other flashpoints along the same arc include the civil war in Sudan and the insurgency in Myanmar, along with the South Caucasus conflict, now resolved, at least for now, and the Sahelian crisis, still ongoing. The next summit of the BRICS countries, to be held in Russia in a few weeks, may bring another round of expansion, with unpredictable consequences all over the geopolitical tectonic plates...

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(September 1, 2024)

A lucid voice from Taiwan can be heard in this letter to Nikkei Asia, refusing to join the current anti-China rhetoric.

The author is quite right. China is not (and never has been) a sea-power like America, used to operate over vast oceans. It is a land-power who lives or dies on solid ground. It is more inclined to keep an eye on its continental neighbors: in its long past, China was not conquered often, but it did happen a couple of times, not by the West or by Japan, even though they did their best in that regard, but by the Mongols and the Manchus, two nearby Asiatic nations.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Western-hawks-falsely-attempt-to-paint-China-as-Pacific-conqueror

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(September 3, 2024)

Let's be real: Turkey has a lot more chance of becoming a member of the BRICS than of becoming a member of the European Union.

After almost 20 years, the Turkish candidacy to the club of rich European countries is a big canard that won't ever become reality. In fact, it probably was a non-starter from the very beginning.

Turkey is looking for a balancing position between East and West. It certainly could become a BRICS country, but such a thing would likely create a certain malaise among the other countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. How would they react? Will they consider Turkey some sort of opportunistic country that can not be depended upon?

It may draw a wedge inside NATO, dividing and tearing apart the organization, especially if America stops prioritizing that entity following a possible Trump victory next November, or worse, get put of it. Let's not forget that the US is much more afraid of China than Russia and that the European countries are quite capable of holding their own against Russian aggression, being collectively more populous, more rich and more powerful.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3277083/erdogans-turkey-requests-brics-membership-alongside-china-russia-and-india?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

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(September 5, 2024)

This gradual shifting of business and trade of the Gulf countries, from the West to the rest of Asia, is very important and must be seen in the light of the recent expansion of the BRICS association to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, four Middle East countries, plus Ethiopia, a pivotal country that provides linkage with Africa.

 

This trend is just beginning and will likely continue to be felt for a long time. Clearly, Eurasia is on the rise, and growing toward Africa, and toward Latin America (to a lesser degree, at least so far).

 

China has cleverly found a way to tie its economic future to a set of emerging countries. That set (the BRICS) is now linking with a growing number of countries in the Global South, leaving the West in the dust.

https://www.economist.com/business/2024/09/05/commercial-ties-between-the-gulf-and-asia-are-deepening

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(September 7, 2024)

A very good analysis of America's predicament: rising defense needs and declining budgetary means.

In the last decades, the US budget has been financed through huge borrowings, both domestic and foreign, in the shape of Treasury bonds. The result is an exploding debt and a dubious future.

AUKUS is a debt trap, a real one. Western propaganda has been quick to describe the New Silk Road infrastructure projects as Chinese debt traps. The AUKUS one is not a contrived debt trap but a real one that may snare Australia for decades, all for the sake of protecting America's military hegemony.

https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-could-be-the-biggest-ponzi-scheme-in-history/

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(7 september 2024)

L'intégration de l'Égypte à l'association économique des BRICS, au début de la présente année, a renforcé le rôle traditionnel de carrefour que joue depuis toujours cette contrée, stratégiquement située au point de rencontre entre l'Asie et l'Afrique, deux continents en plein essor, au plan économique dans le cas du premier, au plan démographique dans le cas du second.

Dans un tel contexte, il faut s'attendre à ce que les échanges économiques se multiplient entre les deux continents au cours des prochaines décennies, à bien des niveaux: biens industriels, produits culturels, denrées agricoles, ressources minières et énergétiques, etc.

Plusieurs de ces échanges se feront par la voie maritime, entre les ports des pays asiatiques et les ports des pays africains, tant ceux de la façade atlantique, mais aussi (et surtout) ceux de la façade bordant l'océan Indien. Le reste de ces échanges appelés à prendre beaucoup d'ampleur d'ici la fin du siècle auront lieu par la voie terrestre, essentiellement à travers la péninsule du Sinaï.

Dans une moindre mesure, certains de ces échanges terrestres se feront aussi au débouché sud de la mer Rouge, éventuellement, aussitôt qu'une infrastructure de transport sera mise en place entre le Yémen et Djibouti, combinant probablement ponts et tunnels, à l'image de ce qui a été bâti entre Copenhague et la Scanie suédoise ou, pour ne donner qu'un seul autre exemple, ce qui a été érigé entre la rive est et la rive ouest de l'embouchure de la rivière des Perles, au sud de Canton. À noter que ce second lien entre l'Asie et l'Afrique, au sud de la mer Rouge, fera lui aussi intervenir un autre tout nouveau pays des BRICS, soit l'Éthiopie, membre depuis le début de 2024.

Sur cet écheveau de base, viendront sans doute se greffer, au cours des prochaines décennies, bien des surprises et des rebondissements qui émailleront l'actualité de nos descendants...

Il est de plus en plus évident que le centre du monde se déplace. Nous sommes en train de transitionner entre un monde atlantique, centré sur l'Europe et l'Amérique du Nord, et un monde afro-asiatique en plein développement, avec des antennes se projetant vers le monde océanien, d'une part, le monde latino-américain, d'autre part.

https://lanouvelletribune.info/2024/09/afrique-du-nord-la-chine-signe-plusieurs-accords-avec-ce-geant/

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(September 14, 2024)

Economic rivalry doesn't have to automatically translate as political divergence. A case in point is the process mixing competition and cooperation that is presently occurring in Africa, between China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

It is worth noting that all three are members of the BRICS economic association, just as India, another country that is investing on many projects in Africa, a continent that is booming demographically and, thus, has an enormous potential for economic development.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3278448/how-uae-competing-china-africas-resources?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

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(September 16, 2024)

The alternative to a negotiated end to the Ukrainian War is not nuclear Armageddon, but a Russian victory.

The way things are playing up to now, the West will continue to half-support Ukraine, with enough help to enable Kiev to bleed Russia, but not enough to win decisively.

The Ukrainians will resist as long as they can, but their resistance is doomed to eventually collapse, given Russian superior strength. When that collapse finally happens, all resistance will cease, and Russian forces will likely run to the Polish border to seize all the territory of Ukraine, not just a part of it.

https://johnmenadue.com/a-solution-in-ukraine/#

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(September 18, 2024)

This is an excellent article that does a good job in delineating the responsibilities of Israel and of the United States in the large-scale massacres currently taking place in Gaza.

Israel must let go of that territory, now the scene of genocidal killing of Palestinians by the tens if thousands, and of the West Bank and of East Jerusalem, areas taken from Jordan and occupied without interruption since the war of 1967.

China is following an innovative and potentially promising path in that matter, while the US, and a large part of the West, is turning a blind eye on the carnage done by the Israelis. Worse, it gave them weapons, money, and protection from the resolutions taken by the rest of the world through the general assembly of the members of the United Nations.

Despite the US and its allies, Israel must be brought to the negotiating table by all means possible, including the threat of expulsion.

https://johnmenadue.com/the-worlds-chance-to-confront-us-israeli-genocide/

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(September 20, 2024)

Read carefully this article, below, because it may very well turn into a harbinger of things to come.

A Trump 2.0 mandate can be disastrous for the US economy and for the fight against climate change. The United States would thus become essentially a drag and a nuisance for the rest of the world, fighting against what must be done to save our planet.

Strangely enough, it may also protect America against complete collapse in the long term since isolationism and protectionism are two defensive attitudes that aimed to protect the core interests of the US. That country would be finished as a world power while remaining strong in its own regional neighborhood.

China will then be free to take the lead, with close support of Russia, and reign over much of the Global South. At the same time Europe will have to find its own way, treading carefully, possibly by building links with India, a country with a great potential, demographically, economically and politically, and with Africa, a region with a potential that is even more enormous.

https://johnmenadue.com/what-would-a-second-trump-presidency-mean-for-the-global-economy/

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(21 september 2024)

Que l'Égypte, un tout nouveau membre des BRICS, décide de remplacer ses vieux chasseurs américains par de nouveaux chasseurs chinois est un symbole qui en dit plus long qu'un roman de mille pages sur l'ampleur des changements géopolitiques en cours...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3279387/egypt-rumoured-buy-chinese-j-10c-jets-middle-east-looks-beyond-us-weapons?tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=f6914fbe-586f-4ae4-bc19f35f9e6bddbb&next_article_id=3279364&article_id_list=3279410,3279387,3279364,3279345,3279306,3279402,3279439,3279438&tc=6

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(September 7, 2024)

Interesting. In the end, geographic proximity and economic might should favor China for most of the ASEAN countries. For others, like Vietnam and, especially, the Philippines, special considerations (read: fear of China's military strength) should make them closer to the US. Eventual integration of individual ASEAN countries to the BRICS association and, possibly, to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, may serve as a useful indicator.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3280064/tremendous-risk-can-asean-unity-endure-if-us-china-tensions-erupt?module=flexi_unit-focus&pgtype=homepage

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(September 28, 2024)

Australia is being turned into a military powerhouse, from:

• Rockingham (with a new naval base in Western Australia, near Perth) to
• Cairns (with a new land army complex in northeast Queensland, being built to protect the most settled areas of that country, located along the southeast coast, in an arc going from Brisbane to Adelaide).

In between those two points, a whole array of installations, old and new, are being built, renovated or expanded: radar stations, communication nodes, air bases, etc.

https://johnmenadue.com/us-makes-wa-vital-for-fighting-its-wars-and-a-target-for-its-enemies/

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(September 28, 2024)

An important reminder of America's growing social issues and declining political prospects. Military might is elusive and easily lost, while social problems take decades, if not generations, to solve. The article didn't mention the recurring trade deficits, nor the recurring budgetary deficits, that are both plaguing the US, but both are bound to become more difficult to carry in the long-term. America will have to accept its limitations...

https://johnmenadue.com/an-open-and-free-indo-pacific-or-stability-at-home/

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(28 septembre 2024)

Pendant que l'Amérique militarise le nord de l'Australie, la Chine, elle, développe ses relations économiques avec les pays du Sud-Est asiatique, un vaste marché en plein essor comptant plus de 700 millions de consommateurs...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-chinas-southeast-asia-belt-093000141.html

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)