OVERCONFIDENT WEST, RISING EAST

 

Joe Biden, the American President, is clearly overconfident about the Ukrainian War. So are the United States, the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Western world in general.

 

While Bidden seems to think that the war is already won, essentially, Trump (and DeSantis) are preparing their bid for the US presidency election in 2024. It is quite possible that the war will last a long time. Erdogan appears to think it might be over by October 2023, but that sounds much too soon. On the other hand, the US election is in November 2024.

 

All that indicate that the US Democratic Party has a span of maybe 11 months to find a way to put an end to the conflict. Otherwise, a Republican victory will doom the prospect of a Western-aligned Ukraine, and may also:

• bring an end to NATO,
• herald a return to the isolationism of old (as the Republicans concentrate on correcting the budgetary imbalance, reducing the national debt, and curing the nation's many social ills), and
• be the sparkplug that can kickstart the creation of Europe's own military and security institutions.

Events are moving fast these days, as they tended to when a major war is going on somewhere. Of course, the absorption of Ukraine by Russia would be accompanied by a series of shifts in the geopolitical plates of Terra. Among them:

• the creation of an All-Russian federation, possibly based in Kiev, and including Byelorussia,
• the beefing up of the European Union by the addition of military components to its nature,
• the greenlighting of the completion of brand-new transportation corridors, for goods and passengers, between the two extremities of Eurasia, i.e. the Far-East (in Asia) and the Far-West (in Europe), through the land silk roads,
• the deepening of economic linkage and development of trade volume between the economies of China, India, Europe, the Russian domain, the Middle East, Central Asia and Southeast Asia.

All that will certainly improve the lot of the population of Eurasia and facilitate the birth of a gigantic economic complex over all the vastness of the mega-continent and turbocharge its growth. That will be even more true when the nearby continent of Africa, with all its great potential, its fast demographic growth, and its promising economic prospects, join that complex and is linked to it by a network of more land silk roads.

Then, the dream of an emergent and powerful Afro-Eurasia (Afreurasia?) will become the dominant reality of the first century of the third millennium of our time, the Common Era (C.E.).

This is not the end but the beginning.

Terra Rising, Terraforming

  Kissing Sun, Moon,

    Humankind Dancing, Singing

      Life Growing, Multiplying,

        Green Gaïa, Gayly Smiling...

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/analysis-ukraine-rolls-back-6-months-of-russian-gains-in-5-weeks

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)