IRAN AND SYRIA AGAINST ISRAEL
The Golan Heights.
(December 4, 2024)
Military units of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards are among the
thousands of irregular fighters from Iraqi groups that are on the move toward
Hama (central Syria) to repel the Idlib rebels storming south from recently
captured Aleppo.
The news is significant since it means a direct involvement of the
Iranian government in the conflict against Israel-backed rebels, not just by
air (two large waves of missiles so far) but now with ground forces. Turkiye
and America are also behind the rebels. All those reinforcements are rushing
toward the defensive line hurriedly erected by the Syrian government north of
Hama, to repulse the surprise attack. Syria's capital, Damascus, is located
southward of Hama.
The Revolutionary Guards are the elite forces of the Iranian government,
its ideological arm. They are separate from the regular army, which is operated
by the ministry of defense. Their presence implies the possible involvement of
regular units of the Iranian army, through the land bridge that goes from
Iranian soil to Syrian soil, through Iraqi soil, all three countries being
contiguous.
It is unknown if the reinforcements will arrive in time to the blocking
position put in place by Damascus. Its main goal, obviously, will be to stop
the rebels and eventually push them back toward Aleppo and the Idlib pocket.
This pocket is located to the westward of the largest Syrian city and is also
the point of origin of the rebel forces. The loss of the pocket would thus
enable the Syrian armed forces to retake a large part of the missing Syrian
territory still outside Damascus control. Turkiye took advantage of the Syrian
civil war to grab three large pieces of territory on the south side of the
border separating that country from Syria. Kurdish and American forces also
controlled a large part of the North-East quadrant of Syria, while the US has
military units in an area near the Iraqi Syrian border.
Another large part of the missing territory has been out of reach for
many decades, in the shape of the Golan Heights, formally annexed by Israel in
the wake of the 1967 war. Damascus still claims the Heights. The presence on
the Syrian theatre of Iranian military units and Russian forces (naval and air)
may be decisive on the course of the Israeli War, especially if one remembers
that Damascus can rely on the presence of battle-hardened troops in its regular
army.
Any attack on the Golan Heights would probably require weeks, if not
months, of reinforcement in troops and material of all kinds (weapons, fuel,
munitions, supplies, etc.).
https://johnmenadue.com/the-continuing-struggle-for-syria/
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(December 3, 2024)
Syria: another front in the Israeli War It may prove to be the needle
that broke the camel's back. While continuing its wholesale massacres in the
Gaza Strip, and just after the recent ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel has opened
another front against its enemies in northern Syria, with this surprise attack
on Alep, made by militants surging from the Idlib pocket, an operation
apparently engineered with the help of Turkiye and America. Overbearing
arrogance may finally bring Israel to its feet and force that country to
negotiate a two states solution with the Palestinians. Its vulnerable point is
the Golan Heights, taken from Syria by the Israeli armed forces in 1967. It may
provide an opportunity for the Syrian government, with the help of Russia and
Iran, to mop up the Idlib pocket and reintegrate it. The obvious next step will
be the Golan, an area Syria can legitimately claim as its own. Before doing
anything, it would need to marshal its forces and resources, most likely with
help from the Hezbollah movement, various Iraqi and Yemeni groups, and also,
most importantly, Iran. A military attack there may be able to overpower the
armed forces of the Israeli state. To put foot on the soil of Israel proper,
inside its pre-1967 borders, may invite a nuclear response against the invaders
if the government of Israel fear that its population is in danger. The fact
that Pakistan, Russia and China also possess nuclear weapons is important here,
since any of these countries may send a message by diplomatic means to the relevant
authorities in Israel, telling them essentially: you do this, we do that.
https://johnmenadue.com/a-surprise-assault-on-syria-but-can-it-last/
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