IRAN AND SYRIA AGAINST ISRAEL

 

The Golan Heights.

(December 4, 2024)

Military units of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards are among the thousands of irregular fighters from Iraki groups that are on the move toward Hama (central Syria) to repell the Idlib rebels storming south from recently-captured Aleppo.

The news is significant since it mean a direct involvement of the Iranian governement in the conflict against Israel-backed rebels, not just by air (two large waves of missiles so far) but now with ground forces. Turkiye and America are also behind the rebels. All those reinforcements are rushing toward the defensive line hurriedly erected by the Syrian governement north of Hama, in order to repulse the surprise attack. Syria's capital, Damascus, is located southward of Hama.

The Revolutionary Guards are the elite forces of the Iranian governement, its ideological arm. They are separate from the regular army, which is operated by the ministry of defense. Their presence imply the possible involvement of regular units of the Iranian army, through the land bridge that goes from Iranian soil to Syrian soil, through Iraki soil, all three countries being contiguous.

It is unknown if the reinforcements will arrive in time to the blocking position put in place by Damascus. Its main goal, obviously, will be to stop the rebels and eventually push them back toward Aleppo and the Idlib pocket. This pocket is located to the westward of the largest Syrian city and is also the point of origin of the rebel forces. The loss of the pocket would thus enable the Syrian armed forces to retake a large part of the missing Syrian territory still outside Damascus control. Turkiye took advantage of the Syrian civil war to grab three large pieces of territory on the south side of the border separating that country from Syria. Kurdish and American forces also controlled a large part of the North-East quadrant of Syria, while the US has military units in an area near the Iraki-Syrian border.

Another large part of the missing territory has been out of reach for many decades, in the shape of the Golan Heights, formlly annexed by Israel in the wake of the 1967 war. Damascus still claim the Heights. The presence on the Syrian theatre of Iranian military units and Russian forces (naval and air) may be decisive on the course of the Israeli War, especially if one remember that Damascus can rely on the presence of battle-hardened troops in its regular army.

Any attack on the Golan Heights would probably require weeks, if not months, of reinforcement in troops and material of all kinds (weapons, fuel, munitions, supplies, etc.).

https://johnmenadue.com/the-continuing-struggle-for-syria/

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(December 3, 2024)

Syria: another front in the Israeli War It may prove to be the needle that broke the camel's back. While still continuing its wholesale massacres in the Gaza Strip, and just after the recent ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel has opened another front against its enemies in northern Syria, with this surprise attack on Alep, made by militants surging from the Idlib pocket, an operation apparently engineered with the help of Turkiye and America. Overbearing arrogance may finally bring Israel to its feet and force that country to negociate a two states solution with the Palestinians. Its vulnerable point is the Golan Heights, taken from Syria by the Israeli armed forces in 1967. It may provide an opportunity for the Syrian government, with the help of Russia and Iran, to mop up the Idlib pocket and reintegrate it. The obvious next step will be the Golan, an area Syria can legitimately claim as its own. Before doing anything, it would need to marshall its forces and resources, most likely with help from the Hezbollah movement, various Iraki and Yemeni groups, and also, most importantly, Iran. A military attack there may be able to overpower the armed forces of the Israeli state. To put foot on the soil of Israel proper, inside its pre-1967 borders, may invite a nuclear response against the invaders if the governement of Israel fear that its population is in danger. The fact that Pakistan, Russia and China also possess nuclear weapons is important here, since any of these countries may send a message by diplomatic means to the relevant authorities in Israel, telling them essentially: you do this, we do that.

https://johnmenadue.com/a-surprise-assault-on-syria-but-can-it-last/

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)