WW3 CONTINUING ALONG RIM OF EURASIA

 

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(Texts posted today on X, about the conflicts going on all along the line of contact between the Western world and the Bricsian world)

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An interesting article. Syria might be open for economic assistance and diplomatic recognition from Russia and from Bricsian countries in a more general manner, including China. The current negotiations for the future of the Russian military bases may thus provide an opening for Beijing and Moscow to establish political ties with the new Syrian government.

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/16/the-secret-talks-between-syrias-new-leaders-and-the-kremlin

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An Israeli order in the Middle East is an obscenity when the Palestinian nation is considered, and that is exactly what the Israeli government has not been doing since the very inception of that country, and the American government has been playing along with that charade, mainly for patriotic and economic reasons. They've both been ignoring the plight of the Palestinians for decades, generating the October 7th massacre and the much larger massacre that followed. The coming order in the Middle East will not be an American one, but a Chinese one. China has already been able to broker peace between Iran and the Arab countries, and then between various Palestinian factions. What remains to be done is the most difficult challenge: brokering a lasting peace between Israel and the Arab countries, in view of implementing the two states solution. It is not an easy task, of course. Strangely enough, the seeds of such a peace may have been sown in the ruins of Assad's Syria, whose government seems to have been eliminated through a (probably loose) coordinated effort involving Israel, Turkiye and America. At the present point of time, the new Syrian government is negotiating with Russia to get economic assistance, diplomatic recognition and, presumably, military protection. The Russian Federation has many cards in its hands, to help Damascus, and for that purpose, it may use its many ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS economic association. It must say that the BRICS are getting more and more involved with the countries of Arabic language and culture. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are already full members of the enlarged BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is a quasi-full member, and Algeria has recently become a partner country. The Saudis are probably waiting to see where the wind is blowing in the Middle East. As everybody knows, it has been blowing from Washington since the XXth century, but there is no denying that a great political gust has been shaping up lately, all over the center and the eastern parts of the great Eurasian continent, a forceful tornado whose very center is in Beijing, capital of the second most powerful single country in the world. Will ISIS-led Syria go the way of Taliban-led Afghanistan? The new Syrian authorities seem willing and eager to be pragmatic and realistic in their new role as the government of a country. They can't ignore the fact that Israel still occupies the Golan Heights and has done so since 1967. They can't be unaware that the Israeli State has used the opportunity created by the fall of the Assad government to grab even more Syrian land, around Mt. Hermon and the old, demilitarized zone, turning them into a fortified area. They're also keeping the southern part of Lebanon under military rule and are now openly talking about annexing the West Bank and North-Gaza. How long the Arab countries accept this kind of abhorrent situation is something that must be determined by their respective governments, it goes without saying. Is time on the side of Washington on this matter, or is it on the side of Beijing? Will Beijing choose the side of the Israelis or the side of the Palestinians? As far as can be determined, they will probably choose the Palestinians.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israeli-order-middle-east

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That's exactly why Syria may well choose the lesser of two evils: an Asiatic solution as opposed to a Western one, Beijing over Washington.

https://johnmenadue.com/israels-relentlessly-bombing-leaves-syria-defenceless-against-military-aggression/

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M. Arnaud, le Sinkiang n'est pas une province chinoise mais une région administrative autonome, comme le Tibet ou la Mongolie intérieure. En revanche, la démographie chinoise est puissante et toutes ces régions (il y en a une demi-dizaine) sont devenues ou bien à majorité han, ou bien à pluralité han. Il pourrait être intéressant ou instructif de ventiler la performance économique du Sinkiang selon l'origine ethnique des citoyens qui y vivent. Il faut aussi tenir compte des bases militaires et des garnisons, un facteur important dans le cas du Tibet. Pour le reste, je partage plutôt vos opinions. Je vous souhaite un bon temps des Fêtes, M. Arnaud. Ici, au Québec, nous avons eu un hiver plutôt hâtif, avec de la neige au sol dès le début décembre. L'an dernier, la première neige a eu lieu en novembre. Je ne sais pas comment on dit "changement climatique" en mandarin, mais, ici, en bon Québécois, on dit qu'il fait frette en titi! À la r'voyure...

https://johnmenadue.com/uyghur-separatists-claimed-to-be-key-player-in-assads-fall/

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That merging trend will probably increase among Japanese carmakers and among other non-Chinese carmakers in general. Their competitive advantage in the EV market is simply too strong to ignore. Japan was (and still is) remarkable for the great number of corporations involved in the car making business, compared to Europe, South Korea, or America. The US is down to three distinct large companies (GM, Tesla, and Ford), while the Koreans have just one (the conglomerate combining Hyundai et Kia).

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Honda-and-Nissan-to-begin-merger-talks-amid-EV-competition

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Important news for the people of Myanmar. The hesitant ASEAN maritime states are probably those farthest away from Myanmar (the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore). The Mekong hydrographic basin states are the continental ASEAN states, minus Myanmar. The fact that Thailand, a new BRICS partner country, and important non-ASEAN neighboring states (China, India, and Bangladesh), the fact that they all seem ready to support the current military government to plan and execute a gradual return to civilian rule is highly significant in itself. All in all, the Anglo-Americans' very covert campaign to remove Myanmar from the Chinese sphere of influence seems doomed to end in failure. Therefore, it is quite possible that this part of the undeclared Third World War between the declining power of the Western states and the rising power of the Bricsian states may end with a clear victory for Beijing and a clear defeat for both London and Washington. New Delhi may find itself with a China-friendly state to the east but avoid the fragmentation scenario. So, for that rising power, it would be a mixed result. Of all the conflicts around the rim of Eurasia, only the Armenian one is a closed chapter. The Bricsian side has won by preserving the Armenian population and ensuring a partial land liaison between Russia and Russia through the Caucasus. Only the Georgia of this link is missing, for the moment. The Ukrainian war is still going on, while the Israeli conflict seems to be postponed for an indefinite period. As for the Korean peninsula, the US government seems to have made a great mistake, with a long-prepared but ultimately botched attempt to force a martial law regime upon the South Korean population. That may incite that country to stay out of the Ukrainian War, leaving an open field for North Korea's military activities over there. Finally, as for the rebel province of Taiwan, the Chinese armed forces are multiplying attempts to intimidate the separatist government, while the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, is becoming more active and visible. One day, it may become a PRC-friendly alternative to the current government, putting an end to the Chinese Civil War of the first half of the past century.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Thailand-launches-bold-push-to-break-ASEAN-s-Myanmar-deadlock

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)