BRICSIAN EXPANSION IN AFRICA: MANY OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME

 

(Article based on two postings made on Linked In, July 27th, 2025)

The territorial expansion of the BRICS economic group of countries inside the African continent is slowed by a combination of destabilizing factors: the growth of the jihadist insurgency in the Sahel area, the multi-years civil wars occuring in two strategically placed countries (Lybia and Sudan) and the conflict still ongoing in the Great Lakes region and involving the Democratic Republic, Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.

At the present times, the continent has three countries that are members of the BRICS (Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa) and two countries that are partners of the association (Uganda and Nigeria).

The ongoing civil wars are waged both to the west of Egypt (Lybia) and just to tje south of it (Sudan). Lybia's division in two great factions prevent the BRICS to extend to the westward, along the North African coast, in the general direction of Algeria. In the case of Sudan, the conflict between the two main factions create an obstacle for a BRICS peaceful expansion up the Nile valley, toward Uganda, and East Africa.

Meanwhile, the jihadist incurgency has provoked a change of political allegiance by the three inland republics of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, away from the Western world, splitting in two the economic grouping of Western Africa, creating a rump CÉDÉAO (Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest) and a new AÉS (Alliance des États du Sahel), under military protection by Russia, and leaving France's political and military influence in that part of the world in the dust.

Still, things are in flux in West Africa and the jihadist rebellion continue to spread slowly, encroaching on the territory of the row of countries bordering the Atlantic, crearing conditions that are not ideal for the creation of new large-scale infrastructure projects, beside the important ones already unfolding, like the new Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the two gigantic iron mines in Algeria and Guinea.

As for the conflict in the Great Lakes area, it make things awkward for an expansion on the BRICS in the region, the present members, China, but also India and the United Arab Emirates, preferring stability before investing vast amounts of money in infrastructure projects. Just a bit to the south, though, in northern Mozambique, the fossil fuel development project by Total and others seems to be ready to proceed forward, the local jihadist rebellion having been put under control by the intervention of neighboring countries, among them Rwanda.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/26/rsf-paramilitary-led-coalition-forms-parallel-government-in-war-torn-sudan