L'ARMÉNIE, CARREFOUR CAUCASIEN ET CASPIEN
(Affichages faits sur Linked In, en date du dimanche 10 août 2025)
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Le projet du Brahmapoutre se précise. Essentiellement, il s'agira d'un complexe hydro-électrique au fil de l'eau, sans réservoirs de retenue, contrairement au barrage des Trois-Gorges, sur une section de rapides qui s'étend sur cinquante kilomètres et implique un dénivellé de deux kilomètres. Il y aurait donc cinq barrages équipés de turbines, en cascade, c'est-à-dire le long du fleuve, de l'amont à l'aval, tout au long de cette section de 50 km, ce qui permettrait de générer trois fois plus d'électricité, en tout, que ce que produisent les turbines du barrage unique des Trois-Gorges. Le coût est gigantesque, soit cinq fois le coût du barrage des Trois-Gorges (le premier du monde en terme de puissance produite), ce coût total tenant compte que leprojet inclut la construction de cinq ouvrages distincts, de voies d'accès terrestre, de lignes de transport d'énergie, etc., dans un territoire difficile d'accès, montagneux, faisant partie de la région autonome du Tibet et, par conséquent, éloigné des provinces à peuplement chinois, ce qui explique sans doute que le barrage des Trois-Gorges a été construit longtemps avant celui-ci, étant bien plus facile d'accès.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/08/china-is-building-the-worlds-biggest-hydropower-dam-why-is-india-worried/
Il y a clairement une accélération de l'avancée russe, laissant espérer un effondrement complet du front ukrainien en octobre ou novembre, suivi d'une course aux frontières. Plus vite finira cette guerre née du besoin américain d'établir un glacis militaire anti-russe avant de se retourner contre la menace chinoise émergente, le mieux ce sera.
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/08/03/depuis-le-debut-de-lannee-moscou-a-occupe-plus-de-2-500-km%c2%b2-en-ukraine-soit-trois-fois-plus-quen-2024/
Un autre exemple de l'industrialisation croissante des économies africaines, notamment ouest-africaines, avec la nouvelle raffinerie nigériane, près de Lagos, la métropole économique du Nigeria, et la nouvelle usine automobile chinoise, à Ouagadougou, la capitale du Burkina Faso).
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/mercedes-benz-set-to-roll-out-truck-assembly-plant-in-west-africa/wq85hdy
Cet article semble indiquer que la Chine et la Corée du Nord entendent nouer des liens économiques plus étroits, apparemment pour profiter des coûts de main d'oeuvre plus bas du côté nord-coréen de la frontière. L'implication active de Pyongyang dans les projets conjoints en cours demontre que le gouvernement nord-coréen voit cette initiative d'un oeil favorable. Il n'est pas impossible que ces travaux présagent une admission de la Corée du Nord à l'association économique des BRICS, à laquelle font déjà partie les deux pays qui se trouvent à la frontière nord de la Corée du Nord, soit la Chine et la Russie. Il faut sans doute tout cela en parallèle avec le rapprochement politique et militaire de la Russie et de la Corée du Nord, survenu relativement récemment, dans la foulée de la guerre ukrainienne. On peut donc supposer qu'il est également possible que la Corée du Nord devienne plus ou moins prochainement membre de l'Organisation de coopération de Shanghai.
https://www.nknews.org/pro/remote-chinese-city-revives-north-korea-border-bridge-project-to-boost-trade/
The German carmaking company is clearly adapting quickly to the new realities of the automotive market. This new complex in Hungary will combine an electric car assembly plant and a battery making plant in the same location, a formula applied by that company at two other sites so far, one in America and one in China. Mercedes also invested recently in a new truck factory in Sénégal. Both those installations, in Hungary and in Sénégal, will benefit from comparatively low labor cost. and access to a large market.From Sénégal, the company will be able to sell its production all over the countries that are part of the regional bloc Ecowas-CÉDÉAO (Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest), a region whose economy is poor but growing fast. As for Hungary, it is part of the European Union market, whose population is declining but more affluent, compared to the CÉDÉAO.
https://hungarytoday.hu/mercedes-to-open-hungarys-largest-car-factory-next-year/
The map shows clearly that the small Republican States of the Western Plains, located inland, are the ones most heavily impacted by the trade war started by the Trumpian administration, so far. The States located around them, along the Pacific Coast and along the Mexican border, and also in the northeastern area, most of them being Democrats (with the important exception of Texas, of course), are either stagnant or in slightly positive water. It is possible that the relatively good results obtained by Utah and the Southeast region, mostly republican-leaning, might be the result of local factors. The way those shrinking and growing parts of the US economy evolve through time, in the coming months, may prove instructive.
https://www.newsweek.com/map-states-economic-gdp-growth-2025-2091751?utm_source=STMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TheBulletin&emh=203e2b52bb7cdda2cf72b78cbe625321bed7b7f7ac3b146f04dc71f02dc50bce&lctg=67f8fd055605f7af030a90ba&utm_term=Bulletin
Trumpian backward and ignorant thinking... Tariffs will means losses for the three American carmakers, but do not worry: they will focus on big, gas-guzzling SUVs, instead of electric cars, so everything will stay the same. It won't, for two very good reasons. First, climate change is a reality, not a Chinese narrative designed to harm the American economy. Second, by ignoring the electric car imperative, those three companies may lose their long-term economic edge in their core industry and stop being able to compete in the electric field, making their long-run survival chancy. Trump is the worst thing that ever happened to America, worst than the Vietnam War, the Watergate scandal or the Great depression.
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/04/trump-ford-tesla-gm-evs
La Chine est consciente qu'elle a un problème de dettes et fait des efforts pour se serrer la ceinture. Pendant ce temps, les États-Unis (et le Canada) continuent de s'enfoncer de plus en plus profondément dans les dettes...
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3320917/chinas-campaign-ease-local-government-debt-scores-first-big-win-inner-mongolia
Donald Trump, America's most inept President, is also Beijing's and Moscow's best ally. Not only is he driving a wedge between America and Europe, dividing the Western world in two parts, but he is also, now, driving a wedge between the Western world and its natural ally, India.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/finland-based-thinktank-exposes-us-double-standard/articleshow/123151870.cms
To fly completely undetected over Taiwan's airspace, despite very advanced radars, and also over the body of water separating Japan from South Korea, again with nobody noticing at all, is no small feat for any warplane. It may changes completely the way air combat has been conceived and performed since World War 2, reintroducing the important notions of unpredictability, surprise and secrecy. And it certainly proves how powerful China's military aviation is becoming, year after year, compared to the rest of the world.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-j-20-stealth-fighter-just-scored-major-win-over-west-bw-080425
Another Trump blunder. Brazil will sell more of its coffee production to China, meaning tighter economic relations between those two BRICS members, while a good part of its coffee will continue to go to the United States, with higher prices being paid for it by the US companies that import it and the US consumers that drink it. The US governments will thus get more revenue for its coffers from the new tariffs, at the expense of its own companies and of its own citizens, gradually weakening the national economy as a whole. The next step will likely see the Trumpian federal government using this renewed fiscal strenght to gave more support to the pro-Trumpian States in their hour of need, comparatively to the non-Trumpian States, rewarding the first ones for their loyalty (and punishing the seconds for their lack of loyalty) toward the President of the United States, further dividing and fragmenting the country along geographical and ideological lines.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/06/americas/china-brazil-trump-tariffs-coffee-intl-latam
We should make electric vehicles (EV) easier to buy in Canada, not harder. To ape the American federal government by slapping a 100 % duty on Chinese EVs, like Ottawa did not so long ago, is just plain dum. Why do we always go wherever the Americans go, even when they're going straight into an environmental wall, headfirst and fast, is beyond any person's ability to think rationaly. We should help the electric transition, not create obstacles to it. Washington is trying to preserve its automotive industry by insulating it from the outside world, with artificial barriers that will probably reduce (if not eliminate completely) its competitive edge in the long-run. Canada is a country with a medium-size population of around 40 million people. It is an interesting market for any carmaking company. Car buyers should be able to buy Chinese-made cars that are imported here, on our soil, under the same kind of tariffs that are used for other imported cars, like those coming from South Korea, from Germany, from Italy, etc. To punish China for making cars that are well-built, technologically advanced, remarkably affordable and less disruptive on the planet's climate makes no sense at all, and does not even buy us good will in Washington...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/08/04/analysis/ev-policy-sales-slump-canada
https://www.linkedin.com/company/toute-leurope/posts/?feedView=all
Il est possible, en effet, que l'évolution de la Nouvelle-Calédonie suive une trajectoire qui aboutisse éventuellement à une indépendance complète. Ce sera alors, cependant, la naissance d'un pays plurinational, à l'image de la Belgique, du Canada et de la Suisse. La présence de trois grandes populations d'origine bien distincte, mélanésienne, polynésienne et européenne, devra se refléter dans une éventuelle constitution néo-calédonienne, contrairement à ce qui existe au niveau de la 'constitution' canadienne qui, incidemment, n'a jamais été reconnue et signée par l'Assemblée nationale du Québec et dont l'esprit s'inspire de la constitution américaine, souvent perçue (erronément) comme universaliste, dans le monde anglophone. Il s'ensuit qu'une éventuelle constitution apte à refléter ce qu'est réellement l'histoire canadienne devra nécessairement s'articuler autour des trois grandes populations qui sont à la base de la démographie de ce pays: les autochtones, les francophones et les anglophones.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/conflits/posts/?feedView=all
Interesting. When will Washington (and Ottawa, for that matter) start to address its debt problem? In the case of the United States, the federal government is siphoning additional revenues from the pockets of US companies and consumers, through higher tariffs rates. It may increase already existing centrifugal tensions between good states (those that are loyal to Trump) and bad states (those that are not), with the federal government siding with the first ones against the seconds. The last time that kind of thing happened, American society was young, vigorous, rural and poor. After five years of intense fighting (and at the cost of 600,000 dead), the federal government was able to prevail, and the seceding states were reintegrated by force, leading to more than a century of racial tensions, fear, vengefulness, lynching crowds, urban riots, etc. Now, it may be different. American society has grown fat, aimless, sexually confused, socially divided, ethnically complex, heavily indebted, and financially tired by decades of imperial overstretch. This time, the internal tensions may prove to be too much for the ability of the Centre to hold together the opposing parts, the Blue States and the Red States. The easy way out, for the Trumpian crowd, and also the less costly, in money and in blood, may be to simply let go of those bad, evil, unloyal, traitorous, socialist states, and leave them at their own devices.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3321048/china-defuses-its-time-bomb-debt-us-hears-ticking-intensify?share=YMsPq3zQJOy1AKGwG8NjSd5JrH0H1hBA7pIlfOySyeWK1xcfQcssqe1eun3XJcXZq8j4cFFKj6WCZo9msL2dPSIQx%2F92xfetYSUkffpXkPPs3LR9B%2F17fer2nGRT9HRx9ehIF2oq7w8UuP9I3BaUEA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/elon-musk-has-made-an-announcement-starship-flight-to-mars-crewed-by-optimus-in-nov/dec-next-year/articleshow/123164458.cms
En quelques mots, maintenant que le saucisson est bien découpé, avec une série de routes militaires allant d'Israel à la mer, formant une demi-douzaine de compartiments, le piston va se mettre à descendre le long de la bande de Gaza, du nord vers le sud, de compartiment en compartiment, poussant la population civile en direction du corridor de Philadelphie, celui-ci courant le long de la frontière avec l'Égypte, vers les ruines de Rafah comme destination ultime, là où sera éventuellement concentrée cette population, selon toutes vraisemblances. Il y a actuellement trois grosses poches de survivants, totalisant environ 2,1 millions de personnes, protégées par les brigades encore existantes des forces d'auto-défense du gouvernement gazaouï, une au nord (la partie côtière de la ville de Gaza), une deuxième au centre (composée de camps de réfugiés) et une troisième au sud (la ville de tentes d'El-Mawasi). La population souffrant déjà de faim, dans le cadre d'une famine qui n'a rien de fortuite, le piston poussant les survivants vers le sud prendra sans doute la forme d'une succession de centres de distribution de nourriture, supervisés par des employés engagés par la fondation ''humanitaire'' mise sur pied pour l'occasion, y compris des gardiens de sécurité équipés d'armes à feu. Les centres de distribution de nourriture seront ouverts et fermés le long de la bande selon un calendrier prévu d'avance. Cela fera en sorte que la population civile soit incitée plus ou moins volontairement à se déplacer vers le sud, graduellement, de compartiment en compartiment, toute résistance armée de la part des brigades gazaouïes étant visiblement appelée à être écrasée dans le sang par les gardes de sécurité et/ou les soldats israéliens, selon les circonstances, quoiqu'il soit probable que des tirs 'anonymes' provenant de drones soient privilégiés, afin de contrer l'impact des vidéos prises par les médias sociaux et de minimiser ainsi la responsabilité des soldats israéliens et de leurs affiliées, les uns blâmant les autres et inversement. Pendant que les Palestiniens se dirigeront vers leur destination, les travaux d'aménagement du camp de concentration seront vraisemblablement entrepris, de façon à pouvoir créer à temps un gigantesque complexe de détention forcée, capable d'abriter les millions de personnes captives, lesquelles ne pourront en sortir sinon en s'engageant à quitter leur sol natal pour toujours. Les captifs devront possiblement travailler dans des usines construites à proximité, comme c'était le cas des Juifs déportés à Auschwitz, pour exactement la même raison, d'ailleurs, puisque le gouvernement israélien trouverait regrettable de laisser d'aussi nombreux travailleurs sans occupation, oisifs, surtout que leur détention forcée risque d'être très coûteuse pour une économie israélienne déjà épuisée par un long affrontement. Donc, aussi bien les faire travailler à vil prix pendant qu'ils sont encore là. De telles usines seraient aussi dans la continuité des établissements israéliens qui, avant-guerre, tiraient profit du labeur des Palestiniens de Cisjordanie, rémunérés au compte-goutte et au bénéfice des entreprises israéliennes. Par ailleurs, la durée que prendra l'évacuation graduelle d'une telle masse humaine, du nord au sud de la bande de Gaza, permettra vraisemblablement aussi de procéder aux opérations relatives à l'annexion de la plus grande partie du territoire gazaouï, hors du périmètre réservé au pénitencier géant de Rafah, suivi de son repeuplement progressif par des colons israéliens d'expression hébraïque et de confession juive. Cette opération de longue haleine pourrait servir de répétition générale à une autre opération, d'une envergure encore plus énorme, visant à vider l'essentiel de la population de la Cisjordanie de sa population palestinienne. Celle-ci pourrait être concentrée autour de Jéricho, par exemple, un centre de peuplement important de l'est de la Cisjordanie, non loin de la frontière jordanienne, alors que la vallée du Jourdain restera sans doute contrôlée étroitement par les forces armées israéliennes et que le reste du territoire sera évacué et repeuplé petit à petit, un processus déjà en marche depuis des années, en fait, si l'on considère l'étalement urbain qui s'est fait autour de Jérusalem-Ouest, d'une façon planifiée et contrôlée, et le développement progressif d'un réseau routier très élaboré, déployé selon les axes est-ouest et nord-sud, rappelant irrésistiblement les routes militaires qui découpent maintenant le territoire gazaouï en rondelles de saucisses isolées les unes des autres...
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-08-07/ty-article/.premium/israels-cabinet-meets-to-weigh-gaza-takeover-as-thousands-protest-for-hostage-deal/00000198-85a0-d9db-a9be-87ab6b680000?lts=1754625342811
La nature humaine est toujours égale à elle-même. Ça fait un peu penser aux pompiers qui mettent eux-mêmes le feu à des bâtiments (ou paient des gens pour le faire à leur place, voire même pour tirer la manette d'alarme sans qu'il y ait de feu) pour des motifs pécuniers, essentiellement, étant rémunérés au nombre de sorties. La publication de document à caractère scientifique doit mieux s'auto-réguler et s'auto-policer, sur le modèle des avocats ou des médecins qui ont des ordres supervisant l'exercice de leur profession.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/08/06/fraudulent-scientific-papers-are-booming
It is true that travelling by air in Africa cost a fortune, even for just one person and even more for a group of two or three. Competition will indeed reduce cost, eventually, through time, as the continent goes further along is industrialization process. Ethiopian Airlines used to have a dubious reputation twenty years ago, one that has improved a lot in more recent years. Royal Air Maroc and Turkish Airlines are two lines that have developed many new routes all across the continent, riding on the wave of economic growth that has characterized many countries of the African Union in the last decades, even though they lies in the shadow on much larger countries, like China and India. Abidjan, the economic hub of Côte d'Ivoire, is a good location to become a stronger nexus of air travel all around West Africa, just like Lagos is, given the demographic potential of Nigeria in the coming decades. As for the three countries of the Sahelian confederation, they obviously wish to create their own economic space, with different political affiliations and with their own solutions for air transportation. It will take some time for that to happen, of course, since they have to struggle against both a Touareg rebellion in northern Mali and a two-headed jihadist insurrection in rural areas of the three countries, disturbing the normal course of life, much like what is happening in Myanmar. It is difficult for most Westerners to admit that the niceties of western elective democracy are quite irrelevant when one is facing the consequences of real life and death emergencies. In both cases, the internal disturbances will quiet down eventually and political discourse will likely became less tense as a result. China's influence should prevail in the long-run over America's influence in the case of Myanmar, while the situation is not as clear in the case of the Sahelian region, where a tug of war between European influence, Russian influence and North African influence is also at play. It is not impossible that some coastal countries, along the Gulf of Guinea, to the south, or even along the Mediterranean Sea to the north may have to intervene to help the inland countries get rid of the incessant fighting. Different regional coalitions may have to be organized. Senegal and Guinea may conceivably have to help Mali, possibly in tandem with Morocco. Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Togo may collaborate in the case of Burkina Faso, while a regional coalition made up of Algeria, Nigeria and Bénin may find advantageous to gave a hand to Niger, those three coalitions under the patronage and supervision of the African Union, with well-defined goals and endgame scénarios.
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Une fois la paix revenue, les trois pays sahéliens directement concernés pourront définir la façon dont doit se poursuivre leur avenir. Dans le cas du transport aérien, le recours à une formule scandinave de type SAS, avec une compagnie unique appartenant à trois pays différents, pourrait être a la fois économique et pratique, tout en contribuant à la fédéralisation des trois Etats impliqués. Une participation d'acteurs économiques extérieurs à l'alliance sahélienne pourrait donner du muscle financier à une telle nouvelle compagnie aérienne régionale, qu'ils soient en provenance d'Afrique du Nord, de Turquie, d'Europe, du Moyen-Orient, du sous-continent indien et/ou de l'Extrême-Orient, selon la formule qui sera la plus avantageuse pour les populations sahéliennes concernées.
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/08/07/why-its-a-pain-to-take-a-plane-in-africa
Cet article captivant soulève bon nombre de questions. Est-ce que tous les détails techniques de ce nouvel alliage de fer cryogénique chinois sont connus des partenaires du réacteur ITER? Est-ce que la construction de ce réacteur est encore pertinente en soi ou doit-elle être adaptée et modifiée en conséquence? Qui sont exactement les sept partenaires du réacteur expérimental ITER? Est-ce qu'il y a un rapport entre ce nouvel alliage et la nouvelle technologie chinoise permettant de liquéfier ensemble le fer et les autres éléments qui constituent les diverses formes d'acier en une fraction de seconde, évitant ainsi de transporter de lourds minerais de fer à basse concentration sur de longues distance, par train ou par bateau, et permettant du coup de construire des aciéries à proximité immédiate des zones d'extraction du fer?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3320595/absolutely-impossible-how-china-created-super-steel-nuclear-fusion?share=KNROvlnEiwlwc%2F6R71h2X7ruVd82%2FOL8ndcalTir3yfeaTjl6OBrJSGFY6UWoCTxciLctw4SAWEOfIVIR4B%2BGJX6CQbBP1XnXIZRgbWkDNViMsSI35gwPhxySwpmnKAY%2FHPZjXgdOL4MMfkv3dYZ0Q%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
Interesting. This is obviously one more twist in the evolving and complex Sino-American rivalry. While Beijing is working on the realization of a new railway between Sinkiang, Kirghizstan an Uzbekistan, Turkey is doing something similar, with this project of a direct land connection between Turkey and Azerbaizan, through Armenia, in line with a maritime connection with Kazakhstan in Central Asia, via the Caspian Sea. The involvement of Donald Trump in this project, and the possibility of a switch in the political orientation of Armenia, must be considered in view with the political closeness of Azerbaijan with Israël and of Turkey with the new government in Syria, recently at odds with Jerusalem, over the Druzes of Southetn Syria, while the Israeli government just decided to go ahead with the complete occupation of Gaza City and, thus, the first phase of the forced evacuation of the Gazaouï population toward the future concentration camp in Rafah. The degree and nature of the participation of the main European powers in all this is not clear, given that the recognition of the State of Palestine by Saudi Arabia, France and Britain is only planned to take effect in September, next month. Presumably, with the gradual cooling in the relations between Europe and America, they are probably not rooting very firmly for a win by the US, Israel and Turkey coalition. Whatever their prefferences, it is likely that the possibility of American control over the geographical land connection between Russia and Iran, through the South Caucasus (Georgia and Armenia) will be abhorrent to both Moscow and Tehran, and that the chances are not that it will not be considered good news by Beijing. The signature may thus induce a preemptive move by Iran in southern Armenia, and by Moscow in northern Armenia. If that happen, how will react Turkey and Azarbaijan? Even more importantly: how will react Beijing, publicly or behing closed doors? This world conflict may visibly keep ongoing for a little while more...
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7359478512983965697/
One more sign that the political and military alliance between Russia and North Korea is dragging China into a closer economic relationship with North Korea, much the same way the growing closeness between Russia and Iran had a repercussion on China. The Ukrainian War of 2022, born of the Ukrainian War of 2014, has gradually redrawn the geopolitical alignments of the tectonic plates of Asia, Africa, America, South America, North America and Oceania. Even the new space race has been transformed...
https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-replaces-factory-with-cargo-truck-lot-as-china-border-trade-expands/
What is even scarier than a dark, automated, EV car factory in China is a non dark, non automated, non EV car factory in the US, relying on non Chinese wages. Labor cost is one of the keys that can be used to understand change. The real reasons why so many manufacturing jobs left the US and went to China, Mexico, Vietnam, India and elsewhere are rooted in the real reasons behind the slow transformation of the US from a low-wage industrialising country in the XIXth century to a high wage industrialised country in the XXth century: economy of scale, cost control, rational use of resources, etc. China learned capitalism from America and Europe and it is now outcompeting both with the same cold and ruthless efficiency that made the United States able to outcompete all of the Western European countries before WW2, and then the whole Soviet bloc in the course of the following cold war. Economic realities and political imperatives are two of the most important driving forces in the constant reconfiguration of international relations in the last centuries, along with the immediate influence of scientific and technological discoveries, and the much slower and much deeper push of demographic trends.
https://supercarblondie.com/zeekr-dark-factories-produce-800-evs-daily/
La Chine soutient activement l'alliance des trois pays sahéliens qui a été formée ces dernières années pour mieux résister à une insurrection jihadiste qui prend une ampleur de plus en plus inquiétante et commence même à déborder vers les pays côtiers de l'Afrique occidentale, desquels l'alliance s'est récemment dissociée. Ces pays côtiers, membres du bloc régional formant la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CÉDÉAO), auraient sans doute intérêt à soutenir eux aussi les États sahéliens par le biais de coalitions militaires, ponctuelles et temporaires, puisque cela ouvrirait la voie à l'établissement de futurs corridors commerciaux entre l'Afrique de l'Ouest et l'Égypte, porte d'entrée naturelle menant aux pays bricsiens d'Europe et d'Asie. Ceux-ci seraient alors plus à même de participer activement au développement économique de l'Afrique occidentale, comme d'ailleurs de l'ensemble du continent africain, sitôt que sera terminée la guerre en cours entre Israël et les pays voisins (Gaza, mais aussi Iran, Iraq, Syrie et Liban). Cette guerre, pour mémoire, a débuté par l'attaque-surprise du 8 octobre 2023, exécutée par la branche militaire du gouvernement palestinien de la bande de Gaza à l'encontre d'Israël, et elle s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un conflit beaucoup plus large qui, depuis le début du XXe siècle, oppose les Israéliens et les Palestiniens, pour la possession et le contrôle de l'ensemble du territoire qui s'étend entre la mer Méditerranée et le fleuve Jourdain. La population de la bande de Gaza formait, depuis quelques années (et demeure encore pour l'instant), une entité politique auto-gouvernée et, donc, souveraine de fait, s'étant libérée par elle-même de la domination israélienne. Présentement, la Russie et la Chine, tous deux membres des BRICS et du SCO, appuient activement les trois États sahéliens dans leur lutte contre l'insurrection jihadiste. La Chine le fait par l'intermédiaire d'un soutien économique important, comme en témoigne l'ouverture récente d'une usine d'assemblage de voitures électriques ultra-moderne à Ouagadougou, capitale du Burkina Faso, mais aussi de ses investissements dans l'ensemble de la région ouest-africaine, notamment au niveau de l'extraction du fer en Guinée et de sa transformation future sur place. La Russie l'a fait par la mise en place d'un dispositif militaire élaboré, basé sur des effectifs mercenaires plus ou moins bien intégrés par la suite dans un corps expéditionnaire relevant des forces armées régulières de Russie. L'action militaire russe s'est révélé impitoyable contre les insurgés, mais elle s'est aussi signalée par la brutalité meurtrière et raciale dont ont fait preuve certains de ses représentants envers la population musulmane des pays sahéliens, notamment en ce qui concerne les Peuls, massacrés comme des animaux, comme l'a montré les reportages de Jeune Afrique.
https://defence-blog.com/china-delivers-artillery-and-armor-to-burkina-faso/
The new railways will strengthen China on its landward flank, while the steady growth of the Chinese navy is already strengthening it on the seaward flank, opposite potential threats from maritime powers like Japan and America, opposite also the rebellious province of Taiwan, even though the population of the island will hopefully choose one day to rejoin their mainland cousins peacefully. Tibet is already linked to the Chinese provinces by the recently completed railway between Lhassa, its capital, and Qinghai, the Chinese province lying immediately to its northeast, over the vast Tibetan plateau. The new railway will improve the land communications between Tibet and Sinkiang, the two very large autonomous regions that, together, forms much of the Western half of the territory of the People's Republic of China. The new railway may also have the detrimental effect of facilitating the sinicization of the population of Tibet, by making the area more easily accessible to the inhabitants of the provinces, possibly contributing to turn the Tibetans into an ethnic minority, much like the Uyghurs already are in Sinkiang and the Mongols in Inner Mongolia. Cultural assimilation of minorities is as much a reality in Asia as it is in America, as the British proved, in their crooked way, in being able to transform a French-speaking Canada into an English-speaking Canada through migration from the British archipelago, till the moment where they could start being proud defenders of the virtues of majority rule. (May Queen Victoria's corpse be removed from Hell one day and turned into an Irish stew prepared by a French chef, along with powdered spices from India and worms from the Guinean coast, before being forcefully addicted to Chinese-made opium and transsexually morphed into a Trumpian imitator by a bunch of non-binary and Americanized feminist nuts.) The new railway will certainly improve and facilitate the mouvements of goods between Sinkiang and Tibet, much like the first one already do between the inland province of Qinghai and Tibet, and like the other two projected railways will probably do between the inland provinces of Yunnan and Szechuan, on the one hand, and the autonomous region of Tibet, on the other hand. It will also make China better able to defend its far western reaches, against powerful neighbors, like the Russian Federation (in the case of Sinkiang) and India (in the case of Tibet), and even more so if they ever join forces in the future.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3321311/china-counts-down-start-work-xinjiang-tibet-railway?share=F2lxmHwnwUBsBCvZBl%2F5vabdvRH7ooG%2F3YE%2B%2Bma5K%2FDA5QbRmRkJIJMxc14B648F4DmhrOKfo98kGBmxm19N3v37j56ezdW3XDNyaHRji0QVtDsVz8XbrzMTVUmVLmHG1K7hUHnq1XfICxRFRnZ%2BNQ%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
Sovereignty does not need to be granted by Europeans or Western powers. There are many possibilities. Americans became independant when they rebelled against Great Britain. Tchecoslovakia split in two parts peacefully, while the fragmentation of Yugoslavia was a tragic one. The population of the Gaza Strip became a de facto independant political entity when it threw the Israelis occupiers out, even though it meant being labeled 'terrorist' by Israel and its allies, many of whom are now having second thoughts about the whole Israel/Palestine conundrum. If the government of Somaliland act in a sovereign way that is accepted by its own population, then it is a sovereign entity de facto. Here, geography and history have a say. The Slovene people of Slovenia were the first to leave Yugoslavia, followed by the Croats, creating tensions with the Serbs. Serbs and Croats speak the same language but have distinct societies and a different history, much like the Suisses romands are different from the France's French, being often protestants and tied with the other Swiss nationalities by an old association, entered into according to their own free will. Unrecognized Somaliland is separated from the rest of Somalia by autonomous Pubtland, and also by the Ogaden, a Somali-speaking region of Ethiopia, while being distinct from Djibouti, a small country with a divided population, an Afar one in the north and a much larger Somali one in the south. Political fragmentation is not simply a creation of European colonialism. That will be too easy, since it existed in earlier times, all over the lands inhabited by the Somalis, with small independant emirates and Ottoman tributaries. The African continent, especially south of the Sahara, has an extremely diverse population that used to be divided in a multitude of minuscule kingdoms, with small populations always warring or trading with each other, depending on the moment, the periods of peace alternating with the periods of war, the captured warriors turned into plantation slaves in order to profit from their work, instead of simply killing them and losing the fruit of their labor. Africans, first among all humans, created a lot of things in their long history: speech and art, trade and invention, mercy and diplomacy, but also war and slavery.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dishantashah/
C'est probablement un piège, mis en place pour:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/hels-goethe-9364a11b4/
Any venal US president who dreams about receiving the Nobel Prize for Peace and can be bought for the price of a Boeing 747 has to be busy. An Oval Office that used to be to be where the buck stop is now the place where everything is bought and sold if the price is right, including the future of the Palestinians, the Armenians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans, etc., is now a place where the ghost of Martin Luther will gladly strangle the ghost of Adam Smith. There are many ways for Iran and Russia to solve this difficulty, beside using the Caspian Sea for communication. They may force Georgia into participating in a military move against Armenia, jointly with Iran or not, with changes in borders afterward (the Armenian-speaking part of Southern Georgia to Armenia, to gain the support of that government, against the return of ex-Georgian Abkhazia to Georgia, in whole or in part, to gain the support of Tiflis), with the added threat of covertly putting mines in the waters off the coast of Georgia, to hinder relations with the European Union and to make things clear to the right people in Brussels, Paris and Berlin about which country really belong to the European Union and which do not really belong to it. Those people may get the message, especially with Trump doing his best to show his European (and Asian) allies that he values them more for their money than anything else, with the Queens billionnaire having turned NATO into a shadowy racket protection outfit, New York style. With him, the cash must roll in, month after month, otherwise the store may burn mysteriously in the middle of the night. Maybe the lady in charge of Italy should talk in private with her dear friend in Mar-a-Lago (while protecting her own privates, of course) and explain to him a few things about peace, war, life, false gods, etc. The Russians may also ask for a cease-fire in Ukraine in order to send reinforcements to their military base in Northern Armenia, with or without making any overt threat to the Armenian government. (Incidentally, that may have been the choice made today by Moscow. It may work, especially if there is a sum of money involved, and a prostitute or two in the bargain, Berlusconi style.) As for the Iranians, they are still technically at war with the United States, like the North Koreans, despite the ceasefire negociated by their peace-loving adversary, after America's warplanes bombed them in three places and where America's main Middle Eastern ally, Israel, casually assassinated many Iranian citizens, both civilian and military. How heart-wrenching will it be for Tehran to casually lob a ballistic missile or two over the head of any American soldier, mercenary or civilian setting foot on that 22 kilometers long strip of land on the northern side of the Araxe River that define the border between Iran and Armenia? It is probably premature to say that Iran is distancing itself from Russia at this point, but a rejection of the whole concept by Terhan is not surprising at this point in time. The American proposal is reminiscent of Hong Kong, now a Chinese special administrative region, with its own legal system and its own currency (much like Macau), and the 99-years lease that was negociated by the British with the Manchu dynasty acting as the governing body of China at the time. What can Iran do to prevent that concept of ever becoming a reality? It has to make a better offer to Yerevan. Why not turning the whole concept against its proponents? What if the Chinese government was offered the same deal, to use Trump's parlance? What if that stretch of land was leased for a determined period of time to a Chinese private company, in order to establish there a trade depot on a land corridor connecting St-Petersburg, at the head of the Baltic Sea, with Moscow, Tiflis, Yerevan, Tehran and Abadan, at the head of the Persian Gulf? Depending on Yerevan, that trade depot could also connect Ankara with Baku, through the Chinese-leased land that will remain an integral part of Armenia. The lease could be renewed or not by Yerevan at the end of the agreed upon period. Such a corridor can possibly be extended later on, toward Suez, by way of Bagdad and Amman, say, or Damascus and Tel Aviv, in ways that will be determined by the course of events in the Middle East.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/09/iran-and-russia-stand-to-lose-from-us-deal-with-azerbaijan-and-armenia
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/9/iran-rejects-planned-transit-corridor-outlined-in-armenia-azerbaijan-pact
Interesting. It seems that Tanzania is getting ahead of Kenya in the creation of a new trade corridor between the coast of the Indian ocean and the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, Kisangani being at the head of navigation on the Congo River, leading straigth to Kinshasa, where another road leads to two maritime ports, Boma and Matadi. Goma and Bukavu are the two large Congolese cities that were recently captured by M23, a Tutsi armed group that is ethnically related with the founder of the new Rwandan government, both founder and government being politically close to the United States. The Tanzanian planification, obviously, took great care of staying officially neutral in the Sino-American rivalry, by driving a double prong connection toward the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one prong passing to the north of Kivu Lake, through Rwanda, the other one passing to the south of the same lake, through Burundi, a country who is politically allied with Kinshasa, not with Kigali. Walikale is a town still contested between the M23 group, loyal to Kigali, and local militias loyal to Kinshasa. As for Uganda, it is keeping troops inside Congolese territory, in the Ituri region that lies to the north of the two Kivu provinces.The DRC has negotiated mineral rights with both China (twice) and Washington (once).
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ibrahimkirabira/
Les choses se précisent au niveau de la fragmentation possible des États-Unis. Il pourrait y avoir deux pôles bleus et un pôle rouge en formation, avec des États bleus s'agglomérant peu à peu autour de la Californie, dont le gouverneur souhaite se présenter contre Trump en 2028, et autour de l'État bleu de New-York, dont la métropole pourrait avoir un nouveau maire bleu. Autour de la Californie, des États bleus pourraient s'agglomérer le long de la côte du Pacifique, tandis que les États bleus du Nord-Est pourraient se rassembler autour du pôle new-yorkais. Le pôle rouge est plus diffus et plus difficile à définir pour le vaste tapis d'États rouges qui s'étendent dans la vaste plaine centrale, des Rocheuses aux Appalaches, mur à mur, pourrait-on dire. Ce pourrait être le Texas ou la Floride. Le fait que le gouvernement fédéral, contrairement à la situation qui prévalait lors de la guerre de Sécession, est entre les mains des Trumpiens pour encore trois ans et demi (voire davantage si le vice-président prenait éventuellement la relève pour un ou deux mandats, peut être ici le facteur déterminant pouvant faire en sorte que le conflit qui se dessine induise un phénomène de fragmentation politique, plutôt qu'une simple réorganisation ou une reconstruction, l'expression employée à l'époque pour qualifier la réintégration forcée des États esclavagistes.
https://richardhetu.com/2025/08/08/trump-songea-singerer-dans-la-course-a-la-mairie-de-new-york/
L'Union européenne doit mutualiser son économie, tout en maintenant son autonomie politique et stratégique. Il est assez évident que la moitié turque de Chypre ne fusionnera pas avec la moitié grecque de sitôt. Intégrer le nord à la Turquie et le sud à la Grèce sauverait des coûts au niveau des frais de gouvernance, tout comme le retour des bases britanniques à la zone sud. Le retrait temporaire de deux jours fériés en France est une bonne idée et ce serait encore mieux si tous les pays de l'Union européenne s'y mettaient aussi, collectivement. Plus nombreux seront les participants, plus temporaire sera la mesure. Le gel de tous les salaires, surtout ceux de la classe politique, pendant une période de deux ans est une excellente idée. L'imposition des entreprises numériques étrangères devrait aller de soi, qu'elles y consentent ou non. Les dépenses des pays européens envers l'Ukraine doivent cesser, quitte à proposer la candidature du président Trump au prix Nobel de la paix. Il pourra faire don du chèque accompagnant le prix au gouvernement ukrainien, accompagné des dividendes gagnés par l'Organisation Trump depuis le début de son premier mandat présidentiel. L'UE doit aussi tourner le dos à l'OTAN, élargir l'eurozone, ignorer les menaces américaines, intégrer tous les pays des Balkans occidentaux, s'entendre avec la Chine au plan commercial cet conclure une paix séparée avec la Russie en temps et lieu.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/djoomart-otorbaev-519680117/
The regional bloc of Blue (Democratic) States in the Western Great Lakes may now possibly include Michigan, because of the impact of the Trumpian tariffs on the automotive industry. That bloc may now have four components: Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, centered on Chicago. The Trumpian States of America and the Democratic States of America continue to take shape, slowly, in regional blocs, under the dubious leadership of the Trumpian central government. The territorial extent of the official (Trumpian) United States of America go roughly from Miami to Maryland, and from Idaho to Texas, plus Alaska, while the unofficial Democratic) United States of America is divided in three main geographical blocs: the Blue States of the North-East, the Blue Ststes of the Western Great Lakes, and the Blue States of the Pacific Ocean, plus the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the federal district of Columbia, two special cases.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/michigan-gov-told-trump-in-private-that-auto-jobs-depend-on-a-tariff-change-of-course/
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