TRUMPIAN GLOBAL WAR: A NEW FRONT?

 

(Initial posting made on the Linked In network two days ago.)

There's clearly a pattern here: Venezuela, Iran, Cuba.

The first was an apparent success, but much too easy, bloodless on the American side, and with most of the old Venezuelian government apparatus still in place. Trump is hoping to transform his 'possession' into a 51rst State, but it is doubtful in the long-run.

The second is more ambitious, more destructive, and even more doubtful. Trump made a major blunder there, with the Hormuz Strait now under a double blockade, while Iran is certainly reconstituting its arsenal as fast as possible and pushing for more overt and covert support from Russia and China. The U.S. is in a lose/lose situation. A retreat will look bad, a new series of air attacks will be futile, a ground attack will be disastrous. Trump is screwed, everywich way, but he probably care more about his new ballroom-toy than about anything less, a bit like the Sun-King and his Versailles. Après moi le déluge.

The second is more important pour the U.S., but far more dangerous. A ground invasion is far more likely there than it would have been in Venezuela, and even more than in far away Iran, a larger, more populous, and more military stronger country than both Venezuela and Cuba. Cuba has to be the real prize in the Trumpian game plan, especially in the eyes of Marco Rubio.

It is closer, smaller, less populous than Iran or Venezuela. The possibility of turning it eventually into an American possession, maybe as a State, maybe an associated entity, like modern-day Puerto Rico, is quite real, and was even envisioned a long time ago, in the XIXth century, when the U.S. was still young, vigourous and expanding.

It is a Bricsian partner country, though, with growing ties with Russia and China. The prospect of a victorious U.S. invasion is dim, at best. If it happens, it will open a third chapter in the continuing worldwide war opposing the old hegemon, America, and the new one, China, a large and expanding military conflict that started in 2022, with the opening of the East European front, by Russia, followed by the opening of the Middle Eastern front in 2023, by the de facto Gaza government and its many allies.

Such a new Caribbean front, if it became a reality (a big if, admittedly), will possibly spread to the northern part of the South American continent. The American grip on Venezuela is tenuous and fragile, and Colombia is not a Trumpian-friendly country, the way Panama, Ecuador, or Argentina are.

"Pour qui sonne le glas?", aurait pu s'exclamer Hemingway devant l'état actuel des choses. Ce qui est sûr, c'est qu'il ne sonne certainement pas pour le vieil homme et la mer, mais pour le vieux président et son pays en péril. Trump ne risque pas de s'égarer un jour dans les neiges du Kilimanjaro, mais il peut encore faire beaucoup de dégâts jusqu'à la fin de son mandat. Il est évident que le gouvernement chinois a tout intérêt à ce qu'il reste au pouvoir le plus longtemps possible...

https://www.newsweek.com/cuba-protests-erupt-havana-worst-blackouts-decades-us-fuel-oil-blockade-11949435?utm_source=bvMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Geoscape&emh=203e2b52bb7cdda2cf72b78cbe625321bed7b7f7ac3b146f04dc71f02dc50bce&_bhlid=ce857fcddba0fea39575c54dbeca35df20d88823

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