Articles

THE COMING STORM

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  (Messages posted on X these last weeks / Messages publiés sur X au cours des dernières semaines) * * * January 2, 2024 This is a fascinating article about one of the many avenues of commerce between Europe and Asia, especially the Far East. Geographical constraints mean that overland trade between these two important economic poles may use: A) the northern corridor, north of the Caspian Sea, through Russian and Bielorussian territory, B) the middle corridor, through the Caspian Sea, avoiding thus completely the need to cross Russian and Bielorussian territory, or C) the southern corridor, south of the Caspian Sea, through Iranian territory. The last one (C) is less direct, thus less economic and less useful, in the case of trade between China and Europe, implying a long detour for goods to transit though the countries of Central Asia. That being said, in the case of trade between the countries of the Indian subcontinent (and those of continental Southeast Asia, farther away) a...
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EN ATTENDANT TRUMP: CRAINTES ET ESPOIRS

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  (Messages publiés sur X au cours des dernières semaines) * * * December 19, 2024 Here's a revealing article about the way China envisions the development of its economic links with the European Union. The most direct itinerary for the shipment of goods between, say, Shanghai and Berlin follow this axis: China / Kazakhstan / Russia / Ukraine (or Byelorussia) / Poland / Germany. The current Ukrainian War is an obstacle to the smooth functioning of such a vital trade artery, just as much as the animosity it created between the EU and the Russian Federation, and increasingly with China. There's the Middle Corridor through the Caspian Sea, but such an option also has its drawbacks, especially the necessity of unloading and loading cargo at both shores of that vast inland sea. Shipments must then follow a circuitious route through the South Caucasus, Turkiye, and the Balkans before reaching their European destination. It all means that the maritime solution may be the most convenie...
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WW3 CONTINUING ALONG RIM OF EURASIA

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  * * * (Texts posted today on X, about the conflicts going on all along the line of contact between the Western world and the Bricsian world) * * * An interesting article. Syria might be open for economic assistance and diplomatic recognition from Russia and from Bricsian countries in a more general manner, including China. The current negociations for the future of the Russian military bases may thus provide an opening for Beijing and Moscow to establish political ties with the new Syrian government. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/16/the-secret-talks-between-syrias-new-leaders-and-the-kremlin * * * An Israeli order in the Middle East is an obscenity when the Palestinian nation is taken into account, and that is exactly what the Israeli government has not been doing since the very inception of that country, and the American government has been playing along with that charade, mainly for patriotic and economic reasons. They've both been ignoring the plight...
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ERECTING DEFENSIVE LINES ACROSS EURASIA

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  Present-day NATO. * * * (Events are moving fast all over Eurasia, while geopolitical blocs are cementing, centered around the Western world and the Bricsian countries.  Here are some tweets posted on X in the last few days.) * * * Argentina was supposed to join the BRICS informal economic association, but a new pro-US government was elected and chose not to join the group. As for Saudi Arabia, it was interested in joining the BRICS and was formally invited to do so, but its government apparently decided to wait a little before it finalize its inclusion, probably in order to see the outcome of the Israeli war, a major event that may determine who will be the preeminent power in the Middle East in the near future: America or China. https://www.modernghana.com/news/1365723/brics-expansion-implications-for-africa-and-the.html * * * The London-based The Economist may see one day the start of a widespread, violent civil war in Georgia, Myanmar-style, with tens of thousands, if no...
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FROM SYRIA TO SOUTH KOREA, A NEW WORLD IS EMERGING

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* * * (Twits posted on X in the last few days) * * * This a very interesting article that acknowledge the current multipolarity of the word. At the present moment, a two-polar world would refer to a world divided mainly between America and China. A tri-polar world, if weighted country by country, would refer to America, China and India, in that order. The European Union is important, of course, but it is also a loose confederation of sovereign states, economically rich but not always politically coherent. The same could be said about the Arab League or the African Union, by the way. Other sovereign powers are important, like Russia, Japan or Brazil, for instance, but the first two have demographic weaknesses, and all three are not really in the same league as the United States, the People's Republic of China or the Republic of India in terms of effective power or potential power. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/india-will-carve-its-own-path * * * Here is another sign that Bang...
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