A COUNTRY FRACTURING ALONG SOCIAL LINES

 

2016 presidential election (red are Republican counties, blue are Democratic counties).

(The following article is based on a series of twits published today, in reaction to a text on CNN: ''Red states are building a nation within a nation'', ,https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/red-states-blue-states-control-of-national-policy-fault-lines/index.html)

CNN has just published a very interesting and very pertinent sociological analysis of the American restructuring happening now, between blue and red states.

What is developping in front of our eyes is not the beginning of a new Civil War, as many seems to fear, but the deepening of a long, slow, social unraveling, along the main lines of fractures that exist inside any society: urban/rural, men/women, young/old, rich/poor, less educated/more educated, etc. Too much emphasis on individualism, over too long a period of time, a weakening economic situation, the breaking up of family units into smaller and smaller pieces, and the aggravation of social problems (criminality, drugs, sexual promiscuity, etc), are eating up America from the inside.

Compared with the forces that are tearing it apart, the elements that binds it as a whole are having a lot of difficulties. Cracks are appearing, mainly along the natural fracture lines of society. Maps showing so-called blue counties vs red counties are very revealing in that regard, making plain to see a growing division between the interior of the country and the parts that surrounds it, mainly along the western seaboard, the eastern seaboard, the shores of the Great Lakes and the area north of the Mexican border.

America is becoming a bit like a two-layer onion. There is now an inside America and, surrounding it, an outside one. That division creates an opposition between the states that are in constant contact with the outside world, and those who have less contact with it and are more parochial as a result, because they are situated in the center, sheltered from the outside and its woes.

The danger, in such a socially broken entity, is that it may tend to put forward the things that binds everyone in it, that is to say its americanity, and transforming it into an extrem form of patriotism. A manifestation of that may be seen in the ideology of white supremacy, a phenomena that, not so long ago, was something seen mainly among the white population of America's jails. Now, it seems to become more mainstream, and to be normalized by the likes of Fox News. It is doubftul, though, that it may become a real problem in the long run. First, it ran counter to the American ethnic fabric and the lines of its demographic evolution, and, second, it is neutralized by the simple fact that most Americans are repelled by that way of seeing things. For those reasons, it may add to the forces of racism, inside the country, but not to the point of legitimizing it.

It doesn't mean that the other countries of the planet have nothing to fear from the social changes presently at play in America. The pain and anguish created by the idea of an America slipping to a subservient, secondary position in the world picking order are real factors. For many, it may prove something too difficult to accept and swallow, America having long been proeminent and central to world affairs. That advantageous situation is bound to evolve, though, with the rise of competing powers, like China, Russia and India, plus the possibility that close allies, like the European Union or Japan, may eventually choose to be more autonomous and go their own way.

A scenario where the United States tries to reverse its decline, by force, in the name of an extreme form of patriotism, cannot be discarded, especially when one contemplates the events of the last few years: the rise of the far right, especially in the form of Trumpism, the seditious attempt on the Congress, the growing appeal of absurd, conspirationist theories of all kind, the importance of the military portion of the national budget (a portion already enormous and probably not sustainable in the long run, at a time of relative economic decline), the rotten climate of distrust between the the two main political parties, etc.

Only time will tell what the future will turn out to be, of course. But it is important to keep our eyes open, and to envision all possibilities. Let's be aware, but hope for the best...