AN ARC AGAINST CHINA

 

America is cementing a mainly defensive arc, along a big arc going from South Korea and Japan, in the north, to Taiwan, the Philippines and Australia, in the south (the so-called 'first islands chain'). In addition, the US is counting on India, to the southwest of China, to controls the access to the Indian ocean.

These days, the US is quite bellicose about China in some things, like the chips and trade for instance, but its posture on the ground, militarily, is essentially defensive in nature, with the apparent aim to contain the Chinese effective sphere of influence, within which much be counted most countries of the ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations).

The defensive nature of the arc implies that the Americans are leaving the initiative to the Chinese, especially concerning Taiwan, the rebel province that sit at the very crux of the arc, occupying the centre of the main US line of defense. The many attitudes that Beijing may choose to adopt toward Taiwan (toleration, hostile gestures, blocus, secret acts of sabotage, open war, etc.), at one point or another, will likely determine the nature of the events to come in he short-term of mid-term future.

For now, though, the attention of the world is mainly turned to the Ukrainian war, and the chances of an outright invasion seem remote. China doesn’t want to be seen as too supportive of Russia, and the open conflict generates a lot of tension across the globe.

It can be said time is on the side of China, with the slow build-up in naval and air assets, necessary to such an invasion, the still growing economic influence of the Middle Kingdom in much of Asia, the worsening situation in America regarding the national debt, the imbalance in trade, and an out-of-control federal budget. It should be mentioned that a huge and growing part of that budget is made up of unproductive items: the service of the debt (400 billion) and military expenses (800 billion).

So, it may be presumed that the Chinese leadership is feeling no particular urge to start the process of reintegrating Taiwan to the Chinese motherland. The political situation in the US is also a factor, most certainly, with the eventual election of a Republican president probably seen as more conducive to the success of such an operation.

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https://news.yahoo.com/us-general-aggressors-allies-battle-055907109.html