AN ARC AGAINST CHINA
America
is cementing a mainly defensive arc, along a big arc going from South Korea and
Japan, in the north, to Taiwan, the Philippines and Australia, in the south
(the so-called 'first islands chain'). In addition, the US is counting on India,
to the southwest of China, to controls the access to the Indian ocean.
These days, the US is quite bellicose
about China in some things, like the chips and trade for instance, but its
posture on the ground, militarily, is essentially defensive in nature, with the
apparent aim to contain the Chinese effective sphere of influence, within which
much be counted most countries of the ASEAN (Association of South-East
Nations).
The
defensive nature of the arc implies that the Americans are leaving the
initiative to the Chinese, especially concerning Taiwan, the rebel province
that sit at the very crux of the arc, occupying the centre of the main US line
of defense. The many attitudes that Beijing may choose to adopt toward Taiwan
(toleration, hostile gestures, blocus, secret acts of sabotage, open war, etc.), at one point or another,
will likely determine the nature of the events to come in he short-term
of mid-term future.
For
now, though, the attention of the world is mainly turned to the Ukrainian war,
and the chances of an outright invasion seem remote. China doesn’t want to be
seen as too supportive of Russia, and the open conflict generates a lot of
tension all across the globe.
It
can be said time is on the side of China, with the slow build-up in naval and
air assets, necessary to such an invasion, the still growing economic influence
of the Middle Kingdom in much of Asia, the worsening situation in America in
regard to the national debt, the imbalance in trade, and an out of control federal budget. It should be mentioned
that a huge and growing part of that budget is made up of unproductive items: the service
of the debt (400 billions) and military expenses (800 billions).
So, it may be presumed that the Chinese leadership is feeling no particular urge to start the process of reintegrating Taiwan to the Chinese motherland. The political situation in the US is also a factor, most certainly, with the eventual election of a Republican president probably seen as more conducive to the success of such an operation.
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https://news.yahoo.com/us-general-aggressors-allies-battle-055907109.html
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