FROM THE KORAN TO THE FUTURE OF NATO

Turkey, a member State of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is delaying the admittance of two potential members, Sweden and Finland, over their relations with Kurds and incidents involving the burning of a copy of the Koran, Islam's sacred book.

To be frank, the Koran-burning incident looks contrived and was probably designed by some service to give Turkey a good and believable pretext. That being said, the whole thing seems to have an objective of creating as many disturbances inside NATO as possible. Many scenarios can be envisioned as the end result of the operation. At worst, Turkey may end up being expelled from the organization and replaced by Sweden and Finland. At best, NATO may become so bitterly divided by the issue that a divisive process is put in motion, eventually leading to the formation of European Union own's security and military apparatus.

It should be noted that the Russia-China coalition could stand to benefit from such an operation at different degrees, in one way or another. NATO may lose its southern anchor. Europe may choose to increase its sovereignty by creating security and military assets under its own and exclusive control, Turkey may prefer a real Chinese rapprochement to an unrealistic EU membership, Russia may prefer gaining a secure border with a newly-allied Turkey than keeping a neutral border with a country that never had warm feelings toward it, NATO or not, one way or the other. As for Turkey, it has more cultural affinities with the Turkophone parts of the Caucasus and Central Asia than with European countries, and rmay prefer to concentrate on those ties.

It may quite possibly be that, for Turkey, an eventual membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is better than an eventual membership in the European Union, in the long term, especially since the last one will never happen anyway, Turkey being more Asiatic than European...

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https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/02/a-burnt-koran-holds-back-sweden-and-finland-from-joining-nato