HOW TO PROTECT ARMENIANS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

 

The article below present what, essentially, is the Iranian point of view on the South Caucasus crisis. It shows the divergence of views between Iran and Russia on the matter, Iran being a de facto ally of the Armenians, and Russia guarding the peace since the last war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and being also the custodian power in that vast region since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. It is undeniable that Iran and Russia, both Shanghai Cooperation Organization members, must better coordinate their views and actions on the matter.

That being said, the deux major wars and many smaller skirmishes since the disappearance of the Soviet Union are proof of the constant tensions between the region's Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Even without mentioning the Armenian genocide at the hands of the Turks at the end of the First World War, or the pogroms that took place in many Azerbaijani cities after the fall of the Soviet Union, the relationship between Armenians and Turkish-speaking populations in the area are not good. The situation is so difficult, in fact, that the very viability of an Armenian presence in what's left of the republic of Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, a Turkish name that goes back to Soviet times) may be seen as dubious, hanging as it is by a thread (the Lachin corridor).

A short distance relocation of the Armenian population of Artsakh to a territory adjacent to Armenia may be the only solution to prevent the cycle of wars and ethnic massacres. Such a relocation (maybe under United Nations guidance) should be accompanied by a transfer of sovereignty between a newly-aggrandized Armenia (Armenia + territory to the west of Artsakh) and the rest of Azerbaijan. Such a swap of land may permit to rationalize borders, remove Artsakh people from being under Azerbaijani tutelage, eliminate the imbrication of settlements, and gradually defuse the prevalent tensions.

Just look at a current map, along a west/east axis. You will find:

1. Nakhitchevan (an autonomous part of Azerbaijan, Azeri-speaking),
2. Armenia (an independent republic, Armenian-speaking)),
3. the newly reconquered part of Azerbaijan by that country's forces (a part of Azerbaijan that used to be Azeri-speaking, and is actually in the process of being resettled by Azerbaijanis),
4. Artsakh (officially an autonomous part of Azerbaijan, under the name of Nagorno-Karabakh, but unofficially an independent republic, Armenian-speaking), and
5. the rest of Azerbaijan (an independent republic, Azeri-speaking).

The common sense solution, and the most practical one, would be to move the population of Nagorno-Karabakh a little bit to the west, in-between present-day Artsakh and present-day Armenia. The number of persons to be displaced is relatively small, and the area is still relatively empty. Then, the new homeland should merge with Armenia and became simply a new administrative division of that republic. At the same time, the present-day territory of Nagorno-Karabakh should revert fully to Azerbaijan control, ceasing at the same time to be an 'autonomous' part of it, since it would likely be resettled with Azeri-speaking people.

That scenario may constitute a long-term solution to a long-term problem. It would have to be agreed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, under the protection of Russia, and with the complete agreement of the United Nations.

As for less important elements of the crisis, like the future Zangezur corridor or the many enclaves that exist inside Armenia and Azerbaijan, they may wait a little. The long-term survival of what is, de facto, the besieged population of Artsakh must be paramount.

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https://new.thecradle.co/articles/self-sabotage-why-is-russia-excluding-iran-in-the-south-caucasus

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)