ISRAEL/PALESTINE: BEIJING MUST ACT

 

The American publication Foreign Affairs just published, in its last issue, a very interesting article about a little-known (but quite significant) developement in the political situation in Israel.

In short: with barely a whisper, Israel has annexed the West Bank. With a simple switch from a military administration to a civilian administration, the current government has accomplish a de facto annexation.

This development came after decades and decades of enforced demographic change in the ethnic make-up of the West Bank. That artificial change was done through the implantation of hundred of thousands of Jewish settlers in the area, especially in the enlarged territory of Israël's capital, Jerusalem.

With the Golan already annexed by the Jewish State, and with Gaza left in a sort of legal limbo (should it be annexed by Egypt, turned into an independant State, left to its own devices?), and with the Sinai already retroceded to Egypt in stages,in exchange of peace with that country, this development put a end to a chapter of the postwar history of the 1967 War, a conflict initiated preventively by Israel and conducted in the span of a few days.

What the whole thing means is that the current israeli government has decided to stop the mascarade of coninual military occupation, usually a temporary measure. The recognition, by the Trump administration, of the annexation of the Golan and of the status of Jerusalem as the national capital of the country, a few years ago, are obviuously two important factors in the Israeli decision-making process. That recongition lends an air of legitimacy for the Israeli move, at least in the case of the United States of America, still the most powerful country of the world, despite the current changes in the geopolitical landscape.

Moreover, the timing of the change that has to be made to the Basic Law of Israel, in order to pass from a military to a civilian administration, is interesting. Following the election of November 2022, it implies that the country's leaders thinks that the part of the United Nations Charter that forbid forced territorial modifications is in effect caduc and void, in the wake of the recent Russian annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts in September 2022, barely a few weeks before the election, an annexation that was incidentaly preceded by the annexation of Criimea in 2014.

Clearly, those leaders thought that, if Russia could do it, first in 2024, and then in 2022, why not them? Moreover, if the USA thought it proper and right to gave its approval to the Israeli annexation of the Golan, under the Trump administration, why couldn't Israel make another annexation? It just has to proceed discreetly, without fanfare, in order to prevent the wrath of the Palestinians, treated like second-class citizens (and cheap labor for the Israeli economy) since the occupation of the West Bank began in 1967.

The Israeli leadership obviously disregard the inherent contradiction of forcibly admitting millions of Arabs, mostly Muslim, in a political entity containing already many Arabic-speaking Israelis, creating thus a demographic mixture whose very ature doesn't match the purely Jewish State they dream of creating. And they don't understand that their dream can be nothing but a nightmare for the Palestinians living between th Jourdan river and the Mediteranean sea..

The two states solution remains the only option that can truly put an end to the Isreali/Palestinian abcess that has soured the whole region since 1948, with the concomitant creation of Israël and the fleeing of countless Palestinians afraid for their lives. In practical terms, only the influence of regional players, especially Saudi Arabia, but also Iran and Russia, working under the general aegis of China, can break this deadlock.

Beijing wish clearly to extend the BRICS economic alliance and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization political and security framework into the Middle East. The surprise announcement of a general agreement between Saudia Arabia and Iran, under its guidance, is a clear indication of that. That development has help to defuse a lot of the tensions that has accumulated in the region in the last decades.

The unending conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is at the source of the difficult relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors (manifested through many wars) since 1948). In the current geopolitical state of affaits, that conflict can only be resolved through Chinese diplomatic intervention.

An eventual success will facilitate the establishment of a long and lasting peace in the Middle East, and create at the same time the conditions necessary for the betterment of all its inhabitants, Muslims, Jews and Christians alike, by removing an impetus to economic growth. Such a thing would certainly benefit the Middle East, but also the surroundings regions: Europe, Russia, South Asia, North Africa, East Africa, etc.

The keys to peace are in the Forbidden City.

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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/israels-annexation-west-bank-has-already-begun

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)