ARMENIA: STUCK DEEP INSIDE EURASIA

 

The present situation in the South Caucasus is very complex and difficult to decipher. Things are not clear at the moment. Aren't peacekeepers supposed to keep the peace, by definition? Why didn't the Russian peacekeepers keep the peace in the last war between the Artsakh republic and Azerbaijan? Is it because Moscow needs Azerbaijan more than it needs Armenia (and Artsakh) for facilitating trade with Iran and India? Why is the Armenian president wasting his time looking toward Europe and NATO to ensure his country's security when Iran is already doing it, and Russia is also willing to keep an important military base there? Is it for the same reason as Georgia, whose population prefers Europe but whose government understands that geography makes Russia the inevitable choice for Georgia, especially since Moscow essentially controlled two large parts of it, Abkhazia and South Ossetia? It must be said that both Georgians and Armenians are relatively small nations, mainly Christian, living in countries located to the south of the Caucasus Mountain range, with Muslim nations all around them, including along the northern side of the Caucasus. In a sense, they're surrounded. They have good relations with two important political entities: Russia, to the northward, and Iran, to the southward. Persian-speaking Iranians have long been on good terms with the Armenian-speaking Armenis, in a general manner. Both peoples are Indo-Europeans, and both have been neighbors since before the advent of Christianism and Islam. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Georgians and Armenians have both lost control over a sizable part of their traditional territory. Obviously, the Armenian president is out of touch with a good part of his population. It may even cost him his job, eventually. It is understandable, though, that the current Armenian leadership, given the recent loss of lands occupied and used by them in the last two millennia, and even more, and given the bad relations persisting between them and the surrounding Turkophone populations in general, is overly concerned with security matters and thinks its better to have too many patrons than to risk not having enough. In the end, the president's efforts toward the West will probably come to naught -or very little- because of the current tectonic shifting in the geopolitical plates. As soon as the dust settles after the Ukrainian War, in a few months or years, things should become clearer at last. Armenia will likely have to rely mainly on two friendly powers to the north (Georgia and Russia) and on one friendly power to the south (Iran) -that last one being more important for them than the first one- for its long-term protection, under the overall umbrella provided by a far eastern power (China) over that part of Eurasia. 

(Text published on X (Twitter), on the 11th of May, 2024, inspired by the following article)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/thousands-of-armenians-demand-prime-minister-resign-over-border-villages-dispute-with-azerbaijan-1.6880324

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (Twitter)