AWAITING THE SECOND COMING

 

(Below, are to be found a few publications that were recently posted on X (Twitter), some weeks ahead of the Second Coming of Donald Trump, in January 2025)

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(November 7, 2024)

It is becoming clearer that the consequences of the last American general elections are mix. It should be noted that Trump would probably have a bigger sway this time, since the Republican party will be controlling most branches of the government: the Executive, the Senate, the House of Representatives (in all probability) and the Supreme Court (heavily stuffed with conservative judges since the time of Trump 1.0). The probable impact of Trump 2.0 on the fate of the United States may be broadly described in a twofold manner. It should generally prove to be negative economically, while generally prove to be positive politically. On the economic plane, there is a good chance that the popular appeal of what appear like easy fixes through tax cuts and trade barriers would be irresistible. Those kinds of measures will bring beneficial results in the short-term. The problem is that they may bring terrible consequences in the long-term, through multiplication of trade wars, higher costs for the US consumers, growing deficits, booming national debt, increasing difficulties in the selling of bonds, etc. The result may be a slow impoverishment of a large part (if not most) of the American population, compared with the present situation. At the same time, the Trumpian Revolution may be beneficial politically, in the long-term. By turning inward, with the adoption of protectionist measures and of an isolationist attitude, the United States may buy time to mend its social wounds, protected by two large oceans. It may cease acting as the world policeman and accept the reality of a multipolar world. Even if its economy became somewhat smaller in time, relative to China's or India's, the country may avoid political disintegration and social meltdown.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/11/06/the-return-of-trumponomics-excites-markets-but-frightens-the-world

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(November 9, 2024)

The Trumpian movement has decided that climate change is a hoax and that the green transition is, therefore, irrelevant. "Drill, drill, drill" is the mantra of Trump and of his supporters, convinced that electric cars, solar panels and wind towers are simply parts of a Chinese plot and that the US must rely on fossil fuels. This is a tragedy for the whole world because their kind of thinking has already infected a good part of US public opinion and because America is still the most powerful country on the planet. That country's potential for disinformation and the dissemination of falsehoods is strong and backed by the full power of the American government: the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives (probably) and the Supreme Court. Political realities and scientific facts do not mix well. At worst, they can form an explosive mix and, at best, have awkward effects and half-baked results. This is a case in point. What the rest of the world has to do is steer the course, do as much as possible, and try to convince Americans that going back to coal, oil, and natural gas is pure folly.

https://johnmenadue.com/world-teeters-on-brink-as-trump-and-cronies-prepare-to-flood-the-zone-with-shit/

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(November 11, 2024)

It is a bit early to say, of course, but the way things are going, it sure looks as if Indonesia is intending to pursue (and even deepen) its economic relationship with China. The results of the coming visits of the new Indonesian leader to Beijing, first, and to Washington, second, should provide good indications about the changes to be expected in the relation between the Southeast Asia colossus, Indonesia, in regard the two most powerful countries on the planet, China and America. The important investments made by China in Indonesia's minerals in recent years, and the car-related investments that could materialize in the coming years, are important factors. They certainly go a long way to explains Indonesia 's wish to be part of the BRICS association of countries, if which it has just become an official partner.

https://www.economist.com/asia

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(November 13, 2024)

This article, below, shows that the spheres of influence existing between the various members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are continuing to fluctuate. Eurasia is not static, geopolitically, far from it. China, in the last decade, for instance, has made great inroads among the countries of Central Asia, to the detriment of Russia's influence. Now, though, North Korea is shifting toward Moscow, in the wake of the Ukrainian War. Iran is making a balancing act between China and Russia but has been slowly getting nearer to Russia in the last two years, probably propelled by military necessity, i.e. the conflict with Israel. It must be added that a few years back, Iran scored important points with Armenia, when that country was at war with Azerbaijan, because Russia was too busy in Ukraine to properly protect the Armenians and Europe was too far away.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/North-Korea-already-in-combat-in-Russia-in-new-Asia-security-risk

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(November 15, 2024)

One of the most frightening data on this article is the notion that half of the American farm workers might be the potential target of deportation. The damage to American agriculture could be terrible in such a case, on a par with the environmental disaster presently brewing with the slow depletion of the aquifers. The matter is important because, despite all the hoopla with technology, agriculture remain the foundation of the whole US economy, for a very simple reason: people need to eat a lot more than they need the latest version of the iPhone. It is possible to live without iPhone, but not without eating. It is thus probable that the mass deportation promised by Trump as a candidate will not come to pass. America will shoot itself in the foot, otherwise. He will try, probably, but common sense should prevail in the end. That kind of promise, though, clearly shows the demagogic side of Trump. He told voters that all kind of goodies will materialize if he is elected a second time: their paycheck will grow, their fuel bill will decrease, etc.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/11/14/whats-about-to-hit-the-world-economy

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(November 15, 2024)

Compared to Biden, Trump is likely to support Israel more and Ukraine less. It would make a Russian victory more probable and a direct conflict between Israel and Iran more possible. If it is the case, expect a return to peace in Ukraine a lot sooner than in the Middle East.

https://johnmenadue.com/donald-trump-fancies-himself-a-skilled-dealmaker-but-middle-east-peace-might-be-beyond-him/

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November 16, 2024)

With the imminent return of Donald Trump in power, trade wars are likely to be started by America against a wide array of countries, from China to Germany, Italy to Mexico, France to Japan, etc. The European Union may then find, to its surprise, that China is not its mortal nemesis but a possible ally. Beijing wants to trade with Europe, not crush it. It is better for Europe to have Chinese factories on its soil and Chinese shareholders on the board of some of its carmakers than to see its whole automobile ecosystem disintegrate in front of a stronger competitor. China has the edge because its cars are more advanced, more affordable, and more environment friendly. Stellantis and others are doing exactly that by looking for ways to partner with Chinese companies. As the Americans liked to say: "If you can beat them, join them". Europe may well find out, in the long-term, that its best chance, economically, is to cooperate with China whenever possible.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/14/elon-musk-threatens-to-deepen-the-rift-between-europe-and-america

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(November 17, 2024)

The Economist just published a very interesting article about the future DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). It is a good thing that this kind of difficult subject (annual deficits and accumulated debt) is being talked about publicly, because it is too often tempting to put the matter under the carpet, the way it was done during the whole campaign... The matter is important, and not just for the United States. It is also the case for Canada, the European Union, and many other regions of the world. Given the centrality of the US in the world economy, it is to be hoped that the difficult budgetary situation of that country can be eased with time. There are a lot of interesting and promising possibilities in this article, and many others can certainly be found by the new federal department. Some points must be made here, though. The savings found by The Economist amount to $4.5tr over a decade. It is an impressive number. However, it only represents a recurrent saving of about $450b a year. Given annual expenses of $6.8tr a year, it means that less than 10 % of the problem would be solved. Clearly, it is not enough. In a perfect world, the obvious solution would be to reduce the military budget. Reality being what it is, the chances are not great that the United States will willingly renounce the responsibilities (and costs) associated with the imperial posture that it has adopted in 1945. It is possible that only a military catastrophe may be enough of a shock to force the US to accept a reality where it is not the most powerful country in the world, but only the second one. In such an event, America will survive, and its history will continue, but on a diminished basis. Such a new America will have to live within its means, something it has not done since the Reagan era. In fact, to be honest, the whole Western world has lived above its means since the last century...

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/11/17/how-to-make-elon-musks-budget-slashing-dreams-come-true

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(18 novembre 2024)

Les Européens occidentaux commencent à comprendre et à admettre ce qui saute pourtant aux yeux depuis longtemps. Avant même le début de la guerre, l'Ukraine était condamnée. À partir du moment où l'OTAN ne voulait pas se battre pour elle, ni l'Union européenne, les chances de l'Ukraine étaient égales à zéro. L'avenir des Ukrainiens va probablement se poursuivre aux côtés de leurs cousins biélorusses et russes, dans une sorte de fédération qui reste à définir. Pour ce qui est de l'OTAN, avec l'avènement de Trump 2.0, il est très possible que cette institution soit remplacée par une prise en charge de la défense de l'Union européenne par ses parties constituantes elles-mêmes, sous le parapluie nucléaire français.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/manifestations-en-ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-l-affaire-est-jouee-il-faut-la-terminer-le-mieux-possible-estime-le-general-vincent-desportes_6902903.html#xtor=CS2-765-[autres]-

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(18 novembre 2024)

Voici une nouvelle qu'il faut considérer dans le prisme des relations économiques qui s'intensifient entre le monde arabe et la Chine, dans la foulée de l'arrivée de deux pays arabophones au sein des BRICS (Égypte, et Émirats Arabes Unis), sans oublier l'Algérie, un pays devenu partenaire cette année, et l'Arabie saoudite, une contrée qui est un quasi-membre depuis janvier 2024, ayant remplie toutes les formalités, sauf la toute dernière... D'autres signes apparaissent ici et là, dont une importante émission récente d'obligations chinoises à Ryad, la capitale saoudite, tel que rapporté aujourd'hui dans la publication japonaise Nikkei Asia.

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3286696/middle-eastern-companies-express-interest-hong-kong-listings-hkex-chairman-says

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(November 18, 2024)

China is continuing to make diplomatic and strategic inroads all around India. The recent fall of the preceding pro-Indian government in Dhaka has the effect of reshuffling the cards. With Pakistan already in Beijing's pocket and Myanmar run by a China-friendly military government since the 2021 coup, Beijing may count on the support of Nepal and is benefiting also from the Maldives' recent change of mind. As for Sri Lanka, Chinese investments are a major factor in the economic make-up of this country. Only tiny Bhutan is firmly on the side of New Delhi, but it knows that it must stay on good terms with China, its huge neighbor that lies to the north, on the other side of an ill-defined border, and that is quietly planting new villages in deserted parts of its territory. The fact that India and China have recently found a way to calm the tense situation along their own line of contact in the Garwan valley (Kashmir), where dozens of soldiers died three years ago, is a good thing, of course. It will help insure a continuation of peaceful relations between the two most populous countries on the planet. Even then, with Sri Lanka just off the southern tip of India, and the Maldives archipelago just off the other side of that tip, with Pakistan to the northwest of India and Myanmar to its east, with Nepal and the Himalaya to the north, and with Bangladesh ideally situated to potentially threaten access to the Assamese valley in the extreme northeast, China may feel secure toward its Eurasian neighbor, at least for the moment. It is vast and powerful, though, with an economy that, while just a sixth of the size of China's economy, is growing fast. It took thirty years for China to get where it is now. Who knows where India will be thirty years from now?

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3287074/pakistan-bangladesh-revive-direct-shipping-route-it-ominous-sign-india?share=TNxINzUaqRc6fJdKj7RtgXa%2FrupPaZ%2B4naTSyvGsJPr1cwuz6wermyLZCIE%2F8ShJ1hYgxMFRzp%2Bs0IFAQ%2BJxUWNVL8QGBA3VHGIbqNwjlcU%3D

 

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(November 18, 2024)

Israel is trying to impose a military solution the political problem of Palestinian self-determination. Israelis are clearly hoping to reduce the population of the Gaza Strip and to push the survivors into the Egyptian Sinai, clearing the way to a resettlement of the territory with Israeli citizens. In the West Bank, Israel is continuing to implant colonies as much as it can and would be quite glad to get rid of the Palestinians if it was possible to induce them to go to Jordan one day. By invading Lebanon, Israel is playing a dangerous game, that can get even worse if Trump decide to increase the US military support to Jerusalem. Iran is far from Israel, but the intervening territory (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon) is mainly within Tehran’s sphere of influence, creating a possible land bridge between the two sworn enemies. We may have not yet seen the worst on this front in what some observers consider to be World War 3, a growing conflict by proxies between Eurasian powers and the Western word, the other fronts being currently in Ukraine and Myanmar. The previous Caucasian front is now dormant with the defeat of Armenia, while a Taiwanese front remain a possibility if the peaceful reintegration of that province into the rest of China does not happen in the not too far future.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/responses/can-war-gaza-be-won

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(18 novembre 2024)

Curiously, this interesting article didn't say anything about the Anglo-American support for the two wings of the rebellion in Myanmar, that it to say the national minorities and the portion of the majority Bamar population that support Western-style democracy. The junta is essentially supported by the other portion of the Bamar population. In this complex conflict, there is apparently a generational divide between younger Bamar, especially the urban ones, attracted to Western values, and members of the older generation, living in rural settings and preferring social stability and Buddhist traditions.

https://johnmenadue.com/the-countries-fuelling-myanmars-civil-war/

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(18 novembre 2024)

Ce texte sur la "tenaille Trump" est très alarmiste. Le scénario d'une guerre entre l'OTAN et la Russie dans un horizon de cinq ans en cas de défaite ukrainienne est complètement délirant. On y retrouve des relents de la paranoïa antisoviétique du siècle dernier. Les Européens peuvent se rassurer: la perspective de voir des chars russes entrer à Brest ou à Lisbonne d'ici quelques années est nulle et relève de l'affabulation. Les Russes ont de la difficulté à prendre Kiev, imaginez Paris!

Cependant, les trois hypothèses évoquées dans cet article (défaite militaire ukrainienne, retrait américain du théâtre européen, guerre commerciale trumpienne) sont très fondées. À moins d'un revirement inattendu de dernière minute, c'est exactement ce qui va se produire.

Toutefois, les solutions suggérées pour y faire face sont à côté de la plaque. Dans un premier temps, comme il n'y a pas vraiment lieu de redouter une quelconque "chute des dominos", l'Union européenne devrait normalement pouvoir se dispenser de rehausser drastiquement ses défenses militaires. Il lui faudra cependant faire des choix douloureux et difficiles.

L'Amérique trumpienne s'apprête à se recentrer sur elle-même et à fermer une bonne partie de son économie aux autres pays. Dans ce contexte, l'Union européenne n'aura guère le choix. Elle devra graduellement se redéfinir et se repositionner elle aussi. La posture qui lui sera le plus bénéfique, à long terme, sera de s'éloigner des États-Unis aux plans militaire et politique et de se rapprocher de la Chine au plan économique. Il y va de son avenir.

https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2024/11/18/dans-la-tenaille-le-piege-de-trump-a-leurope/

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)