CAR WARS

 

(Based on a series of recent posts on X (Twitter)

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(November 9, 2024)

The Trumpian movement has decided that climate change is a hoax and that the green transition is therefore irrelevant. "Drill, drill, drill" is the mantra of Trump and of his supporters, convinced that electric cars, solar panels and wind towers are simply parts of a Chinese plot and that the US must rely on fossil fuels.

This is a tragedy for the whole world because their kind of thinking has already infected a good part of US public opinion and because America is still the most powerful country on the planet.

That country's potential for disinformation and the dissemination of falsehoods is strong and backed by the full power of the American governement: the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives (probably) and the Supreme Court.

Political realities and scientific facts do not mix well. At worst, they can form an explosive mix and, at best, have awkward effects and half-bake results.

This is a case in point. What the rest of the world has to do is steer the course, do as much as possible, and try to convince Americans that going back to coal, oil, and natural gas is pure folly.

https://johnmenadue.com/world-teeters-on-brink-as-trump-and-cronies-prepare-to-flood-the-zone-with-shit/

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(November 9, 2024)

To reduce or even to avoid completely the increased cost that could be created by raising the tariffs, US and foreign carmakers and parts makers would have to change their current production mode, with less offshoring and more onshoring.

It is good at this point to remember why those companies switch from American plants to Mexican plants. It was all about reducing overall production cost by benefiting from the lower labor cost possible in Mexico.

To reverse all that mean more jobs for American workers, but at the cost of the companies, making them less able to compete in the world market. Domestically, i.e. inside the US, the rationale is that it would not matter at all since the raised tariffs would make it less attractive for foreign companies.

Of course, to absorb the additional cost created by the higher salaries, the US companies would have no other recourse than reducing their profits and their dividends or charging their American customers more. The second scenario seems more likely.

The whole point is moot, though. The proposed scenario is clearly of a demagogic nature. It is an electoral ploy whose main objective has been realized with the Republican victory.

In truth, the Trumpian project does not really aim to improve the American economy in the long term. It aims to raise the profitability of American corporations in the short term while ensuring the electoral chances of the Republican party.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-elections-2024/Trump-tariffs-risk-raising-U.S.-auto-production-costs-by-40bn

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(14 novembre 2024)

Une analyse assez complète qui met en lumière une faiblesse important de la position européenne : la porte laissée grande ouverte aux voitures chinoises à essence et hybrides. Celles-ci pourraient donc s'engouffrer dans la brèche, affaiblissant les manufacturiers européens, confortant les parts de marché des manufacturiers chinois et permettant à la Chine de trouver un débouché pour ses voitures à essence et hybrides au moment où commencent les dernières phases de la transition du marché domestique à la formule electrique.

https://rouleur-electrique.fr/voitures-electriques-leurope-face-au-defi-chinois-un-pari-risque-pour-lindustrie-automobile/

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(November 19, 2024)

Japanese carmakers are under siege lately, especially in China, where their sales are floundering.

It is quite possible that those Japanese carmakers, in order to survive, will turn eventually to mergers as one way to consolidate their operations, increase their size and better their chances of holding their own against the coming Chinese onslaugth.

The Japanese car industry has long been characterized by a large number of companies, compared with Europe (four or five main players, half of them in Germany) and America (two giants: GM and Ford), even though the Japanese home market is much smaller than the markets of Europe and America.

In that context, it would make sense for some of them to start realizing that there is strenght in numbers and that it may be a good idea for them to envision the possibility of exploring avenues for some kind of amalgamation with other Japanese companies facing the same problems they have.

The next few months, or possibly the next few years, may provide some indication about the emergence of such a movement toward mergers in the Japanese car industry.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-bleeds-cash-as-sales-slump-and-expenses-mount

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PLUS:  @charles.millar3 (X-Twitter)