The Human Archipelago / L'Archipel humain

  (Messages publiés sur X au cours des dernières semaines) * * * December 19, 2024 Here's a revealing article about the way China envisions the development of its economic links with the European Union. The most direct itinerary for the shipment of goods between, say, Shanghai and Berlin follow this axis: China / Kazakhstan / Russia / Ukraine (or Byelorussia) / Poland / Germany. The current Ukrainian War is an obstacle to the smooth functioning of such a vital trade artery, just as much as the animosity it created between the EU and the Russian Federation, and increasingly with China. There's the Middle Corridor through the Caspian Sea, but such an option also has its drawbacks, especially the necessity of unloading and loading cargo at both shores of that vast inland sea. Shipments must then follow a circuitious route through the South Caucasus, Turkiye, and the Balkans before reaching their European destination. It all means that the maritime solution may be the most convenie...

  * * * (Texts posted today on X, about the conflicts going on all along the line of contact between the Western world and the Bricsian world) * * * An interesting article. Syria might be open for economic assistance and diplomatic recognition from Russia and from Bricsian countries in a more general manner, including China. The current negociations for the future of the Russian military bases may thus provide an opening for Beijing and Moscow to establish political ties with the new Syrian government. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/16/the-secret-talks-between-syrias-new-leaders-and-the-kremlin * * * An Israeli order in the Middle East is an obscenity when the Palestinian nation is taken into account, and that is exactly what the Israeli government has not been doing since the very inception of that country, and the American government has been playing along with that charade, mainly for patriotic and economic reasons. They've both been ignoring the plight...

  Present-day NATO. * * * (Events are moving fast all over Eurasia, while geopolitical blocs are cementing, centered around the Western world and the Bricsian countries.  Here are some tweets posted on X in the last few days.) * * * Argentina was supposed to join the BRICS informal economic association, but a new pro-US government was elected and chose not to join the group. As for Saudi Arabia, it was interested in joining the BRICS and was formally invited to do so, but its government apparently decided to wait a little before it finalize its inclusion, probably in order to see the outcome of the Israeli war, a major event that may determine who will be the preeminent power in the Middle East in the near future: America or China. https://www.modernghana.com/news/1365723/brics-expansion-implications-for-africa-and-the.html * * * The London-based The Economist may see one day the start of a widespread, violent civil war in Georgia, Myanmar-style, with tens of thousands, if no...

* * * (Twits posted on X in the last few days) * * * This a very interesting article that acknowledge the current multipolarity of the word. At the present moment, a two-polar world would refer to a world divided mainly between America and China. A tri-polar world, if weighted country by country, would refer to America, China and India, in that order. The European Union is important, of course, but it is also a loose confederation of sovereign states, economically rich but not always politically coherent. The same could be said about the Arab League or the African Union, by the way. Other sovereign powers are important, like Russia, Japan or Brazil, for instance, but the first two have demographic weaknesses, and all three are not really in the same league as the United States, the People's Republic of China or the Republic of India in terms of effective power or potential power. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/india-will-carve-its-own-path * * * Here is another sign that Bang...

  (Texte publié aujourd'hui sur X) Un projet ferroviaire assez prometteur permettra un jour d'étendre le réseau ferré de l'Algérie vers le sud, à travers le désert, jusqu'à Tamanrasset. Selon toute vraisemblance, il s'agit d'une conséquence de la désignation récente de l'Algérie comme pays partenaire de l'association économique des BRICS, un relais important de l'influence chinoise, tout comme l'Organisation de coopération de Shanghai. Les pays bricsiens pourraient d'ailleurs être à la source d'une partie plus ou moins grande des capitaux nécessaires à un tel projet. Un prolongement ultérieur menant jusqu'au sud du désert du Sahara est déjà envisagé, selon l'article ci-dessous, au bénéfice des trois pays sahéliens qui, devant une insurrection armée d'intégristes religieux, se sont regroupés l'an dernier en confédération et se sont placés sous protection russe dans la foulée. Tout naturellement, pourraient ensuite veni...

  (The fall of the Assad governement happened so fast it surprised everyone, save, of course, those who organized it from the start, out of sight.  Here, the reader will find are a series of short-texts published on X today, November 9th, 2024) * * * Fragmentation is the operative word now in Syria. Two different rebel factions (the largest one US-backed, Turkish-backed and Israeli-backed, while the other is difficult to assess), plus the US-backed Kurds in the Northeast, and quite possibly the Russian-backed Alaouites in the Northwest. The whole thing is a big mess. China is offering her economic help, while Biden is a lame duck, with only a few weeks in front of him, and Trump is looking inward and wants to cut governement cost. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/07/the-fall-of-syrias-dictator * * * I s the rebels's victory in Syria the result of a mainly homegrown campaign, as professed in this Foreign Affairs article? The winning side in this event is...