CARRIBEAN: IS AMERICA TIPTOEING TOWARD WAR?
(Affichages faits sur Linked In, en date du dimanche 26 octobre 2025)
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Asking Palestine to join the BRICS countries is a shrewd move by Beijing, giving it an hold upon Tel Aviv. It permit China to tell Israel that it may possibly become a BRICS member (or observer) one day, and thus join a growing economic network, but then, first, the self-proclaimed Hebrew State has to do this, or has to do that, etc. It may force to Israeli government the realize that the whole of the Palestinian homeland, with the exception of the Golan Heights, is a bi-national, bi-confessional country, half Arabic-speaking and half Hebrew-speaking, and also half-Jewish and half-Muslim, broadly, with a lot of minorities of all kinds. Once the Israeli government realize the truth of that, and face the realities of demography, history and geography, peace may possibly start to grow in the Middle East after a century and a half of bloodshed and turmoil.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7385391849680793600/
Trump doesn't know what he is doing. If the United States start bombing inside Venezuela or try to snatch some islands off that country's coast, the most likely way for Russia or any other Eurasian powers to send weapons and other forms of reinforcements to Caracas would be through Colombia's territory, covertly or overtly. The only other countries bordering Venezuela are Guyana and Brazil. Guyana has no reason to help Venezuela, being the target of its expansionist intentions, and Brazil would probably be reticent to take a stand in such a fight, one way or the other, given the doubts over the legitimacy of the last election in Venezuela. The allegations about the fraudulent nature of those results is casting a long shadow over Madero's legitimacy, and the Peace Nobel announcement is bettering the prospects of the opposition. Still, if attacked by the US, most Venezuelians would probably rally round the flag, at least till the fighting is done. The Colombian government is already incensed over the Trumpians' spiteful way of treating its nationals, sending back undocumented migrants attached and manacled like a bunch of hardened and dangerous criminals, in what seems to be mainly a move motivated by electoralist reasons.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/3329594/trump-calls-colombias-petro-illegal-drug-dealer-and-says-he-will-slash-us-aid?share=8r8ICbiWwl%2Bbhqvg%2FBjl17ta9rQKntOHtqAmqboZHWXtZrb2BsqpCE%2B%2BA%2F0RbO2UnbbqS9sNhC9a98wAKeU1eTIoQNg5njD22viNLCAKDDmfjhi9%2BM4lfbzY%2BQQhGIYuBzyskEwl50SJOJCa0GyhKg%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
Si la Chine réussissait à mettre au point des missiles anti-porte-avions capables d'opérer non plus seulement à partir de bases terrestres mais aussi à partir de sous-marins, cela pourrait signifier la fin des porte-avions comme navires de guerres incontournables et les rendre aussi obsolètes que les cuirassés de la Deuxième guerre mondiale.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-u-s-navys-biggest-problem-making-sure-aircraft-carriers-dont-become-battleships/
An important question is this: who will the US soybeans farmers blame most for their predicament, China or Trump? That matter may turn them against the Republicans, with difficult to predict consequences on the voting patterns of the population of the Red States where they lives. If so, it could have an impact on the results of the midterms elections, and also lessen the centrifugal internal tensions that are building up inside the Ametical political structure, thus diminishing the possibility of territorial fractures. One way or the other, it will be a blow to the US agricultural sector, already hit by the gradual loss of millions of undocumented farm laborers willing to work for low wages. Those migrants are being hunt down like animals and deported by a Trumpian administration who, quite probably, prioritize the expulsion of Spanish-speaking migrants over possible economic damage to the ordinary consumers. Moreover, it will also fuel inflation all over the country and render even more fragile the economy of many rural states...
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3329690/chinas-soybean-imports-surge-orders-us-hit-zero-and-south-america-cashing?share=F9YIW6CkQF6dNZiplce%2BkIuvVBW4oLbHMOe2HvMtfiIvz1uqQMc284YXBVf96xdndURNSKQqyZbqIIXIUDZ56v7kiJl%2FF0xOdjvZ9xfTVJdBdp%2FGToISbXvNFm5PQblU044hpIu45J3dJlc%2FpxLLnA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
That is excellent news. If the Kuomintang gets elected in the next elections, it may make things easier in the relations between Taiwan's governement and the PRC's government, facilitating the perpective of Chinese reunification without the need for an invasion and the bloodshed that may follow.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/19/taiwan-opposition-elects-new-leader-who-wants-peace-with-china
The Israelis won the war militarily, but the Gazans won it politically. What difference two years of war can have on our perceptions of Israel! It is a democratic country, but only as long as you're a Jew. It is an ally of the West, but it is also a killing machine. It respect human rights, but it denies them to half the population controlled by the Hebrew State in the land of Palestine...
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/10/palestinian-mandela-beaten-unconscious-our-leaders-yawned-and-looked-away/?utm_source=Pearls+%26+Irritations&utm_campaign=d6e6101ae4-Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0c6b037ecb-d6e6101ae4-668562871
Why are the Germans sometimes so dumb and obstinate? It would make so much more sense to buy their fighters from Sweden's Saab (Gripen), or from France's Dassault (Rafale), instead of relaying on Daddy's big toys par excellence, the F-35, build in Daddy's big country itself, the United States? The reason might simply be that most of Germany was conquered by the US at the time of World War 2, and that most Germans, in consequence, have retain a sort of inferiority complex toward the Americans, seen as their saviors from the evils of Nazism. It might also be that they remain sensitive to the soothing and charming calls of the Anglospherian press, like the London-based The Economist, for instance, always eager to please its rich American clientele, and deeply afraid of becoming insignificant and unreliable as a Trumpian canard enchaîné. That publication clearly wish to see Russia drowned at the bottom of a Donetsk trench, in a sea of blood shed by thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian mangled soldiers, rejoicing in human turmoil and suffering, striving to make the Ukrainian War last as long as possible, since it is good for the British and American war industry, rendering its own readers ever richer. Or else, it is because the Germans have become so used to NATO that they see it as the supreme guarantor of peace on the European continent. If that is the case, they are quite wrong. In the long-run, the real guarantor of the continent's security and peaceful economic development, after the end of the Ukrainian War, an event artificially prolonged by the war-mongering, war-loving countries called Britain and America, are the countries of the European mainland themselves. L'Europe aux Européens!
https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2025/10/20/source-germany-plans-to-buy-15-more-us-made-f-35-fighter-jets-risking-fresh-tensions-with-france/195322
An interesting article about Timor-Leste, the 11th country to become part of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations, a grouping more or less similar to the Union européenne, made up of independant countries sharing an increasingly mutualized economy. One sense throughout the text the understandable Anglospherian wish that Timor-Leste will lean more toward Australia and the countries of the Pacific Ocean, its geographical neighbors to the South and East, in its political affiliations, than on Indonesia and Malaysia, its cultural neighbors to the North and West. The Indonesian governement seems to have made a choice in the current Sino-American political rivalry, and that apparent choice does not favor the Trumpians in power in Washington. The US support of the Israeli genocidal bloodbath in Gaza, and the callous attitude of both countries in the course of the war in the Middle East in general, has probably weigh a lot in that determination, Indonesia being the most populous Muslim country on the planet.
https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/timor-leste-a-test-case-for-the-asean-way/
One less admirer of Big Daddy Trump, the Gipper of our time... There may be hope after all for Northern Europe, where Daddy's sway is strongest. The countries of Northern Europe, whose population is mainly protestant and whose climate is as cold as a winter morning in Maniwaki, are the bastion of waning American influence. Let's hope that the future of the European Union will be shaped more by the countries of Southern Europe, especially the four latino-catholic countries that are Portugal, Spain, France and Italy. That quartet, remote front the Ukrainian trenches, closest to Africa and the Mediterranean Sea, may better understand that the EU's future belong with Eurasia, not with North America, across the wide Atlantic. If only Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and the many countries of the Western Balkans could join the European Union, too, it would became even more stronger, economically and politically, more than able to hold its own before the rise of the Eurasian powers, demonstrated by the growing economic might of the BRICS and by the extensive political influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7386280046010830848/
Enlightening (and frightening) reading about the slow destruction of American agriculture that is one of the most dangerous result of the Trumpian policies on migration and trade. Those born before the collapse of the Soviet Union will remember that collectivized agricultural production was one of the main weakness of the USSR, compared with the powerhouse that US agriculture was. Now that agriculture is facing non only Trump's ineptness, but also aquifer depletion, climate change induced drought, and ecological mismamagement similar to what caused the near-disappearance of the Aral Sea.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/19/trump-struggles-to-crack-his-tariffs-piggy-bank-00612284
Here's a revealing poll about Taiwanese attitude toward the willingness and the ability of the Trumpian administration to militarily prevent the eventual reunification of the Chinese people, after four generations of separate life, from 1949 to the present. Such an attitude can only increase if the Kuomintang, under its new leader, succeed in rallying the Taiwanese population under the dream of a reunified and rejuvenated Chinese nation, from the two parts that currently exist, the part that lives on the Eastern side of the Taiwan Strait, and the part (much bigger one, of course) that lives on the Western side of that large body of water. Reunification, especially if it is peaceful, will boost China. The rebel province is relatively small in size and population, but technologically advanced, economically, and geographically blessed by its maritime location. With it, China would gain a wide window on the Pacific Ocean, the largest on Earth. Politically, though, it would probably also create important governance challenges, at least in the eyes of the Chinese Communist Party, the current political apparatus governing the mainland area of China, along with the eight very small political formations that usually follow its lead. After the Manchu dynasty that rule China for centuries, the Republican era of China was first dominated by the Nationalists, represented by the Kuomintang (KMT), then by their old opponents, the Communists, represented by the PCC, now in power in Beijing. What could be next? The return of Hong Kong and Macao brought back inside the mainland fold millions of Chinese citizens who have been exposed to the ways of the West for centuries. The return of the much larger Taiwanese citizenry would have an even more important impact on the overall Chinese population, politically. Who knows, at this stage, what may come out of it? The perception of the Chinese population toward the manner that they are presently govern, more specifically about the very Western concepts of human rights, political freedom, political alternance, democracy, etc., may gradually change in ways that no one, now, can anticipate.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3329823/donald-trump-isnt-serious-about-deterring-beijing-attacking-taiwan-poll?share=dhA%2BA7XNObNc%2B0wrU1J26A8Bmj5jAmenlD6KfI5K9LdN5zjSSWu8pT5VNbFzCWbi7gBoic7BoRinlyQCLUw2qabzwdy8Z4AmJ%2Fa0LPu2wNwAzq76PXL9eSEdLVGZWJhacAjKDZX0dHAkCg3t64wcMA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share
Il est assez évident que la Russie joue sur le temps long et calcule que le temps est de son côté. Le front ukrainien ne s'effondre pas, mais il recule, bien que très lentement. Étant donné l'effort que le gouvernement ukrainien doit consentir depuis près de trois ans et demi, militairement, mais aussi économiquement, sans oublier que les moyens budgétaires de Kiev se seraient taris depuis longtemps s'ils n'étaient artificiellement alimentés par les pays occidentaux, a leur grand détriment, en passant, la fin de la guerre ne prendra pas des années ou des décennies, comme le laissent entendre les études anglospheriennes, mais plutôt en mois ou en semaines, par le biais d'un fléchissement de plus en plus prononcé, jusqu'à l'effondrement complet.
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/10/20/il-faudrait-plus-de-deux-ans-et-demi-de-guerre-a-moscou-pour-conquerir-le-donbass/
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C'est vraiment épouvantable de voir à quel point The Economist souhaite que les Européens aillent se faire tuer dans les tranchées ukrainiennes et que leurs pays s'appauvrissent en soutenant artificiellement le gouvernement Zelenski, afin d'éviter des heurts financiers à son lectorat composé en bonne partie de milliers de millionnaires et de milliardaires américains! On dit que l'argent mène le monde et que le pouvoir intoxique. Ça se voit avec Trump, d'une façon indéniable mais c'est aussi visible à un moindre degré dans les pages de cette publication anglosphérienne, dédiée à la grandeur de l'Anglosphère et à la destruction de la Sinosphère, une menace compréhensible pour cette publication, quoiqu'un peu moins pour l'Anérique, celle-ci risquant tout au plus de se retrouver au second rang sur le plan géopolitique, de plus en plus dépassée par un géant chinois plus agile et plus consensuel.
https://www.economist.com/international/2025/10/21/brussels-feels-like-a-city-preparing-for-war
Prokrovks, cette toute petite ville que bien peu connaissaient hors d'Ukraine il y a à peine quatre ans, deviendra-t-elle le Stalingrad ou le Verdun de cette guerre qui se déroule dans les confins orientales du continent européen?
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/10/22/dans-loblast-de-donetsk-pokrovsk-est-en-train-de-tomber/
Trumpian logic in action: it does not matter if the budget for that unnecessary move is likely to bust, as long as a Red State got what it want... Who cares if the US federal government has to foot the bill, at a time when 1) the federal debt is a scary ticking bomb, 2) the money spent for debt servicing is outpacing the amount spent for warmaking and 3) the most inept US president ever seems to be considering an aerial or naval attack on Venezuela, apparently admiring fellow strongmen Putin (whose Ukrainian venture had a lot more legitimacy than his own foolish one), and Xi (whose planned invasion of Taiwan would have even more). If countries have the government that they deserves, Trumpian America is in deep trouble.
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/the-smithsonian-might-have-to-cut-space-shuttle-discovery-into-pieces-to-get-it-to-texas
What could the US do? China's exports to America are down, but they are up toward the rest of the world. America's imports from China are way down, but they are still growing from the rest of the world. The Trumpians are in a bind. They're destroying and undermining their own agricultural sector, once the rock-bottom solid foundation of their economy, and they seems to be losing ground in the industrial sector, while Vietnam and Mexico are becoming powerhouses, at least in regard to their exports toward the American market. America risk being hollowed out from the inside, while it continue to be driven in a top down way, from Big Daddy to his increasingly powerless citizens, at least the blue ones, as opposed to the way it is supposed to be governed, from the bottom up. Big Brother used to be a popular anti-communist slur about totalitarian regimes. Through the course of half a century, the incarnation of the Western world scarecrow par excellence seems to have slowly shifted, from Big Brother Ivan to Big Daddy Don. Let's hope his son, Big Sonny Don, will resist the temptation of ever becoming Trump the Second...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2025/10/21/eight-of-top-10-us-imports-from-china-in-2018-down-more-than-50-now/
Evidently, the shoals are destined to be integrated into the PRC political system, as a part of Hainan province. Soon, dredging operations should start to modify part of the inner lagoon, the goal being to establish a permanent civilian population, probably with a fishing orientation, with limited security installations, naval and aerial. The shoals are important as a stepping stone toward the Chinese part of the Spratly archipelago, especially its triangle of heavily fortified islands. As such, in the eye of Beijing, it would complement the Paracels islands, located to the west, near Vietnam, both of those maritime features delimitating a secure corridor between Hainan and the Spratly.
https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-photo-shows-china-blocking-disputed-territory-10917275
The US continues to up the ante against Venezuela, with nine deadly missile strikes upon purported drug shipments made by alleged cartels using speedboats, all of those execution-style killings being done without any effort to prove their legitimacy. Are the last two strikes some kind of warning to Colombia, in order to scare Bogotá from intervening (actively or passively) in the event of a direct military intervention, naval or aerial, against Venezuela, under the pretext of making war on drugs?
https://www.newsweek.com/us-second-deadly-strike-on-boat-in-pacific-10924500?utm_source=STMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TheBulletin&emh=203e2b52bb7cdda2cf72b78cbe625321bed7b7f7ac3b146f04dc71f02dc50bce&lctg=67f8fd055605f7af030a90ba&utm_term=Bulletin
Instructive about the inner workings of the civilian and military branches of the Communist Party of China, the second largest in the world, after Modi's political formation in India, in number of members. The purge may also be a consequence of political changes inside the rebellious province of Taiwan, with the possible resurgence of the Kuomintang, Sun Yat Sen's and Chang Kai Chek's Nationalist Party that was the spark at the source of the creation of the Republic of China, and also Mao's old nemesis. Depending on the course of events difficult to predict at this point with any degree of accuracy, it may not be necessary for China to force a reunification upon Taipei, through a military invasion.
https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/china-up-close/analysis-xi-jinping-s-fujian-clique-disappears-from-the-pla
Voici un article très instructif sur la division du travail qui existe entre les différents pays de l'Afrique occidentale et de l'Afrique centrale, au niveau de la lutte contre la piraterie maritime, un problème endémique à cette très vaste zone en plein essor économique et démographique.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7386340078891044864/
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7385607318136078336/
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/23/politics/trump-drug-traffickers-congress-venezuela?cid=android_app
More money down the drain. Why can't the European Union understand that the Ukrainian War will end eventually and that the impulse toward continuation of economic hostilities with Russia and China should end with it, at the same time, for pragmatic, economic and budgetary considerations? Given the fragility of the national budget of most European countries, given also the course of policies followed by the American government so far, the EU will be dumb to stop trading with China, Iran, North Korea or even Russia. The Middle Corridor may be seen as an alternative for inland trade with Central Asia, India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and it may prove useful in that regard. It cannot replace the ease and speed of more direct connections to China, through Russia.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Soaring-Cocaine-Shipments-Weigh-On-US-Colombia-Alliance.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-military-deploy-aircraft-carrier-south-america-amid-soaring-tensions-with-2025-10-24/
C'est tout de même incroyable. Y a-t-il un moyen d'inciter le Michigan à quitter la Fédération américaine, volontairement, et à se joindre au Canada? Trump veut faire de nous le 51e État américain. Pourquoi le Michigan ne pourrait-il pas devenir la onzième province canadienne? Cela aurait des avantages réels, entre autres d'augmenter le nombre de contribubles canadiens et, donc, de réduire le déficit et de s'attaquer durablement au problème de la dette canadienne. Le Michigan a une gouverneure bleue, est limitrophe de l'Ontario, industrielle, populeuse. La population de cet État pourrait y voir un avantage. D'autres possibilités existent, auprès d'États beaucoup plus identifiés aux Bleus, comme le Minnesota ou le Vermont. Mieux encore, l'État du Washington est celui dont la perte ferait le plus mal au président Trump. C'est un État bleu, populeux, industriel, siège de Boeing, Microsoft et Starbucks, entre autres, limitrophe de la Colombie-Britannique, avec une culture 'cascadienne' très compatible avec celui de cette province. Faire des approches auprès de cet État, très discrètement ou moins discrètement, pourrait possiblement faire réfléchir le président américain sur les conséquences possibles de ses volontés expansionnistes au nord de ses frontières...
https://richardhetu.com/2025/10/24/comment-trump-a-change-dopinion-sur-la-pub-de-lontario/
Le contrôle de l'information est toujours important dans les pays autoritaires. Lors d'un coup d'État, un des premiers gestes est toujours de prendre le contrôle de stations de radios et de télévision, bien avant les journaux, les médias instantanés étant plus dangereux pour un nouveau pouvoir qui tente de s'implanter. C'est peut-être pourquoi ce qui se passe aux États-Unis fait parfois penser à un coup d'État au ralenti, un genre de lente descente aux enfers...
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/10/pro-trump-propagandists-take-over-pentagon-press-corps-after-signing-loyalty-pledge/
The whole thing sounds a lot more than just small-scale anti-narcotics operations. Something ominous seems to be brewing in the Carribean. Will that be a third front, after Eastern Europe and the Middle East, in this undeclared war between the West and Eurasia, Venezuela being an ally of Russia, itself an ally of China? What will the Europeans do?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/25/what-military-force-has-the-us-positioned-off-venezuelas-coast
Another chapter in the long saga that is the Duterte family / Marco family political feud in the Philippines. The two families, one pro-American (Marco), the other China-friendly (Duterte) are at loggerheads again, amid the rising Sino-American geopolitical rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region. The odds are very important, and the game is played at the highest political level in this Southeast Asian country, the one most aligned with Washington: the current President is himself the son of an ex-President, while the opposition is represented by the daughter of another ex-president.
https://asia.nikkei.com/opinion/marcos-last-chance-to-foil-a-duterte-comeback-in-the-philippines
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