The Human Archipelago / L'Archipel humain

  (Based on recent publications on X / Twitter) * * * (8 novembre, 2024) Au moins, l'Europe peut se féliciter d'avoir remplacé sa grande dépendance au gaz naturel russe par une tout aussi grande dépendance au gaz naturel américain, par ailleurs bien plus dispendieux. Cela aura tout de même permis à l'Europe 1) de rester du bon côté de l'Histoire, c'est-à-dire le côté de l'OTAN et des États-Unis, 2) de se conformer aux vœux des puissances anglophones et 3) de prendre ses distances à l'endroit de la Chine, le nouvel Empire du Mal aux yeux de l'oncle Sam. La bonne Europe se montre fidèle à l'Amérique et nul ne peut l'en blâmer, même si celle-ci, nouvellement tombée sous la férule de Donald Trump, s'apprête à laisser tomber l'Ukraine, aussitôt que ce sera possible pour le nouveau président, sans qu'il se soucie le moins du monde des droits humains, de la démocratie ou de ce genre de choses. Dans ce domaine, les Républicains ne valen...

  (Based on recent publications on X / Twitter) * * * (November 8, 2024) It is becoming clearer that the consequences of the last American general elections are multiple. It is important to note that Trump should have a bigger sway this time, since the Republican party will be controlling most branches of the government: the Executive, the Senate, the House of Representatives (in all probability) and the Supreme Court (heavily stuffed with conservative judges since the time of Trump 1.0). The probable impact of Trump 2.0 on the fate of the United States may be broadly described in a twofold manner. It should generally prove to be negative economically, but generally politically. On the economic plane, there is a good chance that the popular appeal of what appear like easy fixes through tax cuts and trade barriers would be irresistible. Those kinds of measures will bring beneficial results in the short-term. The problem is that they may bring terrible consequences in the long-...

  (Article based on two publications on X / Twitter) (November 4, 2024) The fact that four ASEAN (Association of South-East Asia Nations) countries will join the BRICS association as partners is significant. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are large and populous countries, each with a growing economy. Like the rest of Southeast Asia, they benefit from the proximity of two titans, India and China, the two most populous countries of the world, the first one with a booming economy, the other with an economy that is much larger, being six times the size of India's, and that is also the second biggest in the world. Officially, all those countries see themselves as neutral in the Sino-American political rivalry, but they obviously wish to become part of the growing trading network that is the BRICS grouping of countries as aspiring members. Of course, by doing so, they also became more integrated within the economic sphere of influence of China, the preeminent member of ...

  Il y a un demi-siècle, l'Union soviétique a d'abord dominé la conquête de l'espace, avant de se laisser distancer par les États-Unis. (Article basé sur un texte publié sur X (Twitter) le samedi 2 novembre 2024) La compétition spatiale entre la Chine et les États-Unis fait irrésistiblement penser à la course à la Lune des années 60, entre l'Union soviétique et les USA, mais avec des différences majeures. D'abord, cette course visait essentiellement la Lune, alors qu'ici, il y a deux objectifs principaux, la Lune et Mars, soit les deux objets célestes les plus susceptibles d'accueillir un jour des installations humaines, même limitées. Ensuite, il ne s'agit plus simplement d'y mettre le pied à quelques reprises pour prendre des photos et récolter quelques échantillons, puis d'en revenir en laissant peu de traces de son passage. Ici, il est plutôt question de monter une série de missions visant à terme à mettre en place des établissements dura...

  Here's a series of publications on X (Twitter) in the last few weeks, as combat continues to rage in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and as tensions keep rising here and there, along the line of contact between the Eurasian powers (BRICS) and the Western powers (G7), all around Eurasia, including in the Indian subcontinent and in East Asia. The presidential election in the United States (and especially the growing prospect of a second Trump mandate) will certainly be important in determining the course of what many observers are already starting to call the Third World War... * * * (September 30, 2024) A direct claim of China on the Andamans and Nicobar archipelagos is a possibility, as stated in this 2016 article in the Indian press. It is also mentioned in the last edition of the American publication The Diplomat. Another possibility is a claim made by Myanmar, an ally of China. That country already own the islands to the north of the two archipelagos. Geographical proximit...

  Here's a text published recently on X (Twitter). * * * (October 18, 2024) An illuminating article about the current race to the Moon. It is increasingly clear, though, that this race will probably not be between the respective space agencies of America and China. For one, the once-mighty NASA has become a shadow of itself. Its new rocket is a monstrosity that cost a fortune and is a one-shot affair. And its plan for bringing a crew on the surface of the Moon is, compared to China's much simpler and doable approach, a complex logistical nightmare where everything can go wrong, and where something, somewhere, s omehow probably will. In a long-term program of lunar exploration and exploitation, NASA seems doomed to fail, especially in a country with out-of-control deficits, exploding national debt, and more pressing needs. This Moon Race 2. 0 should really oppose China and SpaceX, not China and NASA. It is becoming increasingly clear that America's only c...

  These posts on X (Twitter) have been published in the last weeks. They describe the rising tensions all around the Eurasian landmass, from Ukraine to the Middle East, and then to East Asia and the South China Sea. That arc of tensions separates the expanding Chinese sphere of influence, as represented in part by the BRICS economic association and also by the SCO political association, and the receding Western sphere of influence, centered on the United States. Other flashpoints along the same arc include the civil war in Sudan and the insurgency in Myanmar, along with the South Caucasus conflict, now resolved, at least for now, and the Sahelian crisis, still ongoing. The next summit of the BRICS countries, to be held in Russia in a few weeks, may bring another round of expansion, with unpredictable consequences all over the geopolitical tectonic plates... * * * (September 1, 2024) A lucid voice from Taiwan can be heard in this letter to Nikkei Asia, refusing to join the current a...